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Ivey PMI and Employment data are the major Canadian forex events to open 2011. Here is an outlook on the market movers this week and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD, now under parity.

Last week, Canada’s dollar advanced the strongest since April against the USD reaching C$0.9959. The market seems optimistic towards 2011. For the year, the Canadian dollar has strengthened against seven of its major counterparts advanced the most against the Danish krone and fell the most against the yen. Is a robust recovery on the way?

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

canadian dollar forecast January 3-7

  1. RMPI: Wednesday, 15:30. Canada’s raw materials price index rose 1.7% in October, after declining by 0.5% in September. Analysts expected 1.0% rise. The increase was due to higher prices for mineral fuels, non-ferrous metals and vegetable products, while crude oil prices were up 2.5% in October. The Index is expected to increase by 2.2%.
  2. Ivey PMI: Thursday, 17:00. Canada’s Ivey purchasing managers’ index increased unexpectedly reaching 57.5 in November, after falling to 56.7 in October. Analysts expected the index to fall to 56.2. Analysts forecast this index would continue decreasing to 56.2 and ultimately reversed. A decrease to 52.7 is predicted.
  3. Employment Data: Friday, 14:00. Canadian employment change rose less-than-expected last month, to a seasonally adjusted 15.20K, from 3.00K in the prior month. Analysts had expected Canadian employment change to rise 20.00K last month and unemployment rate fell by 0.3% to 7.6% in November since fewer young people entered the job market. Ken Georgetti, president of the Canadian Labour Congress said that the Canadian economy is not creating enough good jobs to accommodate a growing workforce and too much work is part-time, temporary and poorly paid. Canadian employment change is predicted to grow by 20.3K while, unemployment rate is also expected to rise to 7.7%.

*  All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

Dollar/Loonie fell and struggled with parity. On Friday, it made a sharp move to test the 2010 lows of 0.9930 before bouncing back to close at 0.9972, also support line approached twice in 2010.

Most lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. The current close is just under the 0.9977 line, which was a triple bottom in October and November. The opening above or below this line will be significant for the rest of the year.

Below, the 2010 low of 0.9930, which was also marginally broken on the last week of the year (0.9925) is the next line of support. The next lines were support lines back in 2008: 0.98 and especially 0.97 will cushion a fall. This depends a lot on oil prices.

Looking up, parity is the immediate line of resistance after serving as support many times in recent weeks. Above, 1.40 is a minor line of resistance, that capped the pair in December, and worked as  support beforehand.

Higher, 1.0280 remains a strong line of resistance, which hasn’t been broken in quite a while.  Above, the 1.0380 line is a very strong resistance line after stopping USD/CAD from  rising a few times in recent months, and is still far.

The next line is    1.05 which capped the pair twice during the summer and is the next minor line of resistance.  Even higher, the strong 1.0680 worked as resistance in July and in August, for more than one day in each attempt to break higher.

Even higher, 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit  of a long-term range in 2009. The last line is, 1.0850, which was also a swing high back then.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

The rising price of oil, which is expected to continue into 2011, and the positive outlook for the US economy (which Canada is dependent on) allow for further gains for the loonie, especially after USD/CAD closed below parity.

Further reading: