USD/CAD Outlook – May 16-20

The Canadian dollar gave in to the greenback’s strength in the past week. CPI and Retail Sales are the highlight of this week. Here’s an outlook for the main events awaiting us this week, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

New home prices in Canada were flat in March following a 0.4% rise in February, analysts expected 0.3% gain. On a yearly base, prices gained 1.9% from 2.1% in February.Dropping oil prices weigh on the loonie. Let’s start:

1. Manufacturing Sales: Monday, 13:30. Manufacturing sales dropped 1.5% in February following a 4.4% gain in January. The decrease was led by a drop of 7.9% in the transportation equipment industry. An increase of 1.6% is predicted now.
2. Mark Carney speaks: Monday, 17:45. Mark Carney is scheduled to speak to Canadian Club of Ottawa. His words may affect the market.
3. Foreign Securities Purchases: Tuesday, 13:30. Foreigners purchases dropped sharply from C$13.4 billion in January to a mere C$2.5 billion in February, the lowest figure since March 2010. A rise to C$4.37 billion is expected.
4. Leading Index: Wednesday, 13:30. Canada’s composite leading indicator increased 0.8% in March above predictions of 0.5% rise. The majority of companies showed gains, commodity prices gained 2.2% and housing index climbed 2.0%. The same rise of 0.8% is predicted now.
5. Wholesale Sales: Wednesday, 13:30. Canadian wholesale activity decreased more than expected in February dropping 0.6% due to low sales of auto and parts falling 0.3%. Economists predicted 0.1% drop. A gain of 1.5% is wholesale activity is forecasted.
6. Inflation Data: Friday, 12:00. Canada’s inflation rate climbed to 3.3% in March while 2.8% rise was predicted. This is the highest increase since September 2008 with a major rise in Energy prices boosted 12.8%. Meantime Core CPI gained 2.4% following 1.4% climb in February. CPI is expected to gain 0.5% while Core CPI is predicted to increase by b0.1%.
7. Retail Sales: Friday, 13:30. Retail Sales climbed 0.4% in February following drops in manufacturing and wholesale trade, new automobile sales and narrowing of trade surplus while Core Retail Sales increased 0.7% above 0.5% expected due to rising petrol prices. 0.9% increase is expected for Retail Sales while 0.8% rise is forecasted in Core Retail Sales.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

The pair made another attempt to drop lower, but it countered significant support around the 0.9525 line (discussed last week). After conquering the 0.96 line it eventually closed at 0.9684.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.

The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.  Under parity, we have two close line – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.

The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier.  The area of 0.98 was support earlier in the year and later worked as a pivotal line. It’s now minor resistance.

0.9750 worked twice as a cap for rises in the past weeks, and it has now joined the graph. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line is very closed now.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar doesn’t rely only on oil, but is more dependent on the US economy, which is gradually improving. In addition, the economy of Canada is doing great, especially with the recent impressing gain in jobs.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.