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The Canadian dollar had a roller coaster week, eventually retreating despite good data. Housing Starts and Trade Balance are the major events this week. Here is an outlook for the events the will move the loonie and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The big gain in jobs and the fall in the unemployment rate were great news for the Canadian dollar and stopped the sell off that began in Europe. Canadian Market contracted in February following a two months of growth GDP dropped 0.2% after 0.5% gain in January lower production in the manufacturing sector and a decrease in Wholesales. This may detain   rate hikes in the near future and also possible lower expectations for the 1Q GDP figure.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:USD CAD Chart Forecast May 9-13

  1. Housing Starts: Monday, 13:15. Canadian housing starts increased by 2.8% in March to 188,800 from 183,700 in February higher than 180,000 expected. This three month increase will help GDP growth and is expected stay around these levels in the next months. A smaller gain of 183,000 is predicted.
  2. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 13:30. Canada’s trade balance surplus narrowed unexpectedly from $0.38 billion in January to $0.03 billion in February while $0.60 billion was expected. The decline in export was led by a drop in automobile and energy parts decreasing 5.2% with imports dropping 5.9%. The same balance is expected now.
  3. NHPI: Thursday, 13:30. Canadian New Housing Price Index climbed 0.4% in February a bit higher than 0.3% gain expected and above 0.2% rise in January. Toronto, Oshawa and Edmonton led this increase. On a yearly base NHPI gained 2.1% in February from 1.9% increase in January. A further increase is expected,
  4. New Motor Vehicle Sales: Friday, 13:30. Sales of new vehicles in Canada decreased by 0.6% to 130,843 units in February following 3.2% increase in the previous month. This decline was led by fewer truck sales. An increase is forecasted now.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD  Technical  Analysis

USD/CAD made another attempt to move lower, but formed a double bottom at 0.9450, a new line that didn’t appear last week. But after hitting this rock, the pair climbed back up and eventually closed at 0.9664.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

Distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.

Under parity, we have two close line – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant. The 2009 low of 0.9930 is just beneath, now weaker than earlier.

The area of 0.98 was support earlier in the year and later worked as a pivotal line. It’s now resistance. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line will be immediately tested at the beginning of the week.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

Despite the fall in oil prices, the Canadian economy can find some comfort in another external factor: the pleasantly surprising Non-Farm Payrolls in the US. And when looking at the situation at home, the Canadian dollar certainly has reasons to rise: the jobs report was superb.

Further reading: