There are unconfirmed reports that Egyptian opposition forces are about to take over one of the cities in the Egyptian Delta and to declare it as a liberated land with a free new government.
Opposition factors are aided by former army generals and security such as the Mukhabarat. As the current regime is reluctant to step down, a first step will be to take control of a city in the Delta of the Nile and to “liberate” the territory.
The most prominent faction in the opposition is the Muslim Brotherhood. One leader in the brotherhood, Muhammed Ghanem, called for a war with Israel. This is naturally the biggest risk.
An escalation in the Middle East will further raise oil price and will boost the US dollar, Swiss Franc and Japanese yen. In the meantime, the relative calm allows EUR/USD to stay high.
This comes as the “one million march” begins in Cairo. At the time of writing, it’s uncertain if there are indeed 1 million people in and around Tahrir square. The plan is to march towards the presidential palace, which is heavily guarded.
The new Egyptian finance minister, Samir Radwan, was interviewed by the BBC. When asked from whom he gets orders, he answered Vice President Omar Suleiman and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik. He didn’t mention president Hosni Mubarak, which is a lame duck.
Further reading: Egyptian army abandoned MubarakGet the 5 most predictable currency pairs