EUR/USD Feb 1. Trying to Break Higher

EUR/USD Feb 1. Trying to Break Higher

EUR/USD is trying to break out of the tight high range, and move even higher, as Egypt faces a critical day. Will we see EUR/USD break higher? Or will this attempt fail again?  Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and community trends.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Traded between 1.37 to 1.3760 and failed to break higher.
  • Current range – 1.37 to 1.3760.
Euro Dollar Chart -February 1 2011
Euro Dollar Chart -February 1 - Click to enlarge
  • Further levels in both directions: Below    1.37, 1.3576, 1.3440, 1.3334, 1.3267, 1.3180, 1.3080, 1.2970, 1.2920,  1.28, 1.2722, 1.2587.
  • Above: 1.3760,  1.3830,  1.3950, 1.4030 and 1.4220.
  • 1.37-1.3760 critical range
  • 1.3440 is the key  downside  level – it has stopped the Euro so many times in the past.

Euro/Dollar manages to hold above 1.37- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals –

  • 8:55 European German Unemployment Change. Exp. 11K, Actual -13K.
  • 9:00 European Final Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 56.9. Actual 57.3.
  • 10:00 European Unemployment Rate. Exp. 10.1%.Actual 10.0%.
  • 15:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 57.8 points. Important hint for the Non-Farm Payrolls.
  • 15:00 US Construction Spending. Exp. +0.1%.
  • 11:15 ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet talks.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the  EUR/USD forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Egyptian crisis heightens today as the “million-man march” is planned in Cairo. There are growing signs that the Egyptian army is abandoning president Mubarak.
  • Greek default? Plans are drawn for a making a 25% haircut on Greek debt, codenamed “Brady plan”. This has been overshadowed by the events in Egypt.
  • British contraction in Q4 weighs on the Euro.
  • The Irish parliament approved the finance bill, the final seal for the EU / IMF bailout program.
  • Spanish bond yields are dropping significantly to 5.27%. This helps the Euro.
  • Inflation is becoming problematic for Europe. This comes as employment is still high. Double trouble for Europe. Trichet showed concerns about inflation and boosted the Euro. It already reached 2.4%. Today the bears will probably be reinforced with the bad unemployment rate.

Currensee Community: 62% are long , 38% are short. These are 1369 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.  

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.