EUR/USD Forecast July 27-31 – Euro soars to 22-mth high

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EUR/USD jumped 2% last week, as the pair climbed to its highest level since September 2018. There are five events in the upcoming week, including eurozone and German inflation. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. 
EU leaders defied many of the naysayers after marathon talks, hammered out a deal with regard to the massive EUR 750 billion recovery fund. Under the agreement, the EU will allocate 390 billion euros worth of grants and 360 billion euros worth of loans in order to stabilize the struggling eurozone economy. Consumer confidence remains mired in negative territory, as the indicator stayed pegged at -15 points. The services sector showed strong improvement in June, with the German PMI improving to 56.7 and the eurozone PMI rising to 55.1. On the manufacturing front, German PMI improved to 50.0 and the eurozone PMI improved to 51.1. The 50.0 level separates contraction from expansion.
For the first time since April, US weekly unemployment claims were higher than the previous week. Last week’s reading of 1.41 million was up from 1.30 million. Analysts had expected jobless claims to remain steady at 1.3 million. The US Manufacturing PMI has been showing contraction for the past four months, with readings below the 50-level. Still, the index has been moving upwards and showed strong improvement in June, climbing from 39.8 to 49.6. The upswing continued in July, with a reading of 51.3, but this was shy of the forecast of 52.0.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Monetary Data: Monday, 8:00. M3 Money Supply climbed to an annual growth rate of 8.9% in May, up from 8.3% a month earlier. Private Loans remained at 3.0% in May y/y. We will now receive data for June. Money Supply is projected to rise to 9.5% while Private Loans are expected to grow by 3.2 percent.
  2.  Spanish Unemployment Rate: Tuesday, 7:00. The unemployment rate rose to 14.4% in Q1, up from13.8% beforehand. Analysts are braced for a weaker reading in Q2, with a forecast of 16.7%.
  3. German Preliminary CPI: Thursday, All Day. Inflation rebounded nicely in June, with a gain of 0.6%. The previous reading was -0.1%. The estimate for July stands at -0.2%.
  4. German Preliminary GDP: Thursday, 8:00. The eurozone’s largest economy contracted by 2.2% in Q1, and investors are bracing for an abysmal release in Q2, with an estimate of -9.0%. A sharp decline could send the euro lower.
  5. French Flash GDP: Friday, 5:30. France’s economy slipped by 5.8% in Q1 and is projected to plunge by 15.2% in Q2, as Corvid-19 has caused massive disruption to the eurozone economy.
  6. German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. Retail sales rebounded with a gain of 13.9%, after back-to-back declines. However, another decline is expected in the upcoming release, with a forecast of -3.0%.
  7. Eurozone Inflation: Friday, 9:00. Eurozone CPI posted a gain of 0.3% in June and no change is expected in the initial July reading. The core reading is expected to remain pegged at 0.8%.

EUR/USD Technical analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.1850. 1.1725 is next.

1.1650 has switched to support. It is a weak line.

1.1573 (mentioned last week) is the next support line.

1.1470 has held since mid-March.

1.1328 is the final support line for now.

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I remain bullish on EUR/USD

The euro is surging, with a gain of 3.7% in July. With the US struggling to control Covid-19, investors have soured towards the US dollar and the euro rally could continue.

Further reading:

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.