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  • Recent trading has seen EUR/USD hitting an intraday high and posting its biggest one-day gain in three months.
  • As Russia shelled Ukraine, hopes have revived that the US will negotiate a NATO ceasefire.
  • US President Biden will meet virtually with global NATO allies.
  • Traders may also be interested in ECB President Lagarde’s speech on US and Eurozone data.

In spite of Kyiv’s recent bombing of Moscow, the EUR/USD price consolidates yesterday’s losses near 1.1220, up 0.15% on the day. During the same period, prices in Europe fluctuate around daily highs early on Friday morning.

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According to the White House, US President Joe Biden’s willingness to virtually convene world leaders to discuss the security situation in and around Ukraine may have contributed to the recent optimism. However, market participants are also cautiously optimistic following statements from Russia on Thursday, such as “Moscow is ready to negotiate the terms of Ukraine’s capitulation.” Ukraine’s president Zelenskyy also said that a ceasefire with Russia must be negotiated.

However, there have been six explosions reported in Kyiv and confirmation of Chernobyl’s loss of control. Furthermore, the news of a rocket attack on a Ukrainian border post in the Zaporizhzhia region also impacts sentiment and challenges the EUR/USD bulls.

Amid all these games, Wall Street ended slightly higher after an initial slump, while 10-year US Treasury yields closed at around the same level as the day before. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures fell 0.30%, and US Treasury yields remained under pressure by 1.95%, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to retreat from a 20-month high back to the publications.

While the second reading of US fourth-quarter GDP came in in line with forecasts at 7.0% y/y, strong data on personal consumption spending, the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, and jobless claims resulted in a stronger US dollar on Thursday.

Rafael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed and Thomas Barkin of the Richmond Fed have favored faster rate hikes since they joined Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

Before the Fed’s key inflation indicator PCE Core Price Index and January Durable Goods Orders data, EUR/USD traders will initially pay attention to German GDP and Eurozone Consumer Confidence data. In addition, traders on this pair will also be interested in the comments made by Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), and Fedspeak. Finally, geopolitical updates relating to Russia and Ukraine will set a clear direction.

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EUR/USD price technical analysis: Shallow recovery attempt

EUR/USD price

The EUR/USD price found a bottom around the 1.1100 handle and sharply gained more than a hundred pips above the 1.1200 area. However, the upside has a declining volume that suggests a shallow recovery. The 4-hour chart shows a strong resistance at a horizontal level and 20-period SMA around 1.1280. The average daily range is 49% so far, which shows higher volatility for the day.

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