- Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to report PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m from the United States.
- TheEUR/USD is consolidating in a narrow trading range between 1.1856 – 1.1799.
- Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1799 with an initial target of $1.1856 and $1.1880 levels.
The EUR/USD closed at $1.1825 after setting a high of $1.1842 and a low of $1.1804. The EUR/USD currency pair rose on Thursday after dropping for the previous three consecutive sessions. The rising prices of EUR/USD could be attributed to the latest monetary policy decision by the European Central Bank and the renewed weakness in the US dollar. On the other hand, the EUR/USD consolidates in a choppy range of 1.1856 – 1.1799 ahead of the PPI m/m from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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EUR/USD Steady Despite Weakness in US Dollar
The US Dollar Index, which estimates the value of the US dollar against the basket of six major currencies, fell on Thursday to 92.3. Moreover, the US Treasury yields on 10-year notes also moved lower to 1.28%, which weighed on the greenback. Thus, it added further gains to the currency pair EUR/USD.
The German Trade Balance from Destatis in July showed a surplus of 17.9B against the expected 13.3B. It boosted the value of the single currency, the Euro, and pushed EUR/USD prices higher.
On the US side, consumer credit for July fell to 17.0 billion, versus the projected 24.5 billion, weighing on the US dollar. At 17:30 GMT, the US unemployment claims from last week declined to 310K against a projected 343K. It supported the US dollar and capitulated to further gains in EUR/USD.
European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision
The European Central Bank held its monetary policy meeting in which the bank decided to trim emergency bond purchases over the coming quarter. The step was the first towards unwinding the emergency aid that has been supportive of the eurozone economy during the coronavirus pandemic.
The European Central Bank slowed down the pace of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP). However, the bank refrained from calling it tapering. The President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, said that the latest decision was to calibrate the pace of purchases to deliver favorable conditions for the goals set by the bank.
Lagarde also pushed back the decision to wind up the 1.8 trillion euro PEPP to December. She said that even if it happens, the central bank will continue to keep credit cheap in the region to boost inflation to its target. Besides, she defended the move to trim asset purchases by saying that the favorable financing conditions could now be maintained with a moderately lower pace of asset purchases than 80 billion euros per month during the past two quarters.
The comments from Lagarde, along with the latest decision to trim asset purchases a little in the coming quarter by the ECB, added strength to the Euro and kept the EUR/USD pair higher for the day.
Bureau of Labor Statistics to report PPI m/m
During the US session, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to report PPI m/m and Core PPI m/m from the United States. The economists expect a dip in the Producer Price Index from 1% to 0.6%, and the Core PPI data is expected to drop to 0.5%. Since the US economic figures are expected to underperform, the US dollar is trading with a selling bias against the Euro. Let’s wait for the actual release to determine real price action in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1806 1.1844
1.1786 1.1862
1.1767 1.1882
Pivot Point: 1.1824
EUR/USD Price Forecast – US PPI and Core PPI in focus
The EUR/USD is consolidating in a narrow trading range of 1.1856 – 1.1799 as investors wait for today’s PPI and Core PPI figures. In the 4-hours timeframe, the EUR/USD currency pair is trading with a neutral bias at the 1.1825 level. The double bottom provides immediate support at the 1.1799 level. The closing of candles above this level suggests the chances of a bullish bounce off above the 1.1799 level. Thus, it can lead the market towards the next resistance level of 1.1856.
In the case of a bearish breakout below the 1.1799 level, the chances of a bearish trend remain high until 1.1750 today. On the 4-hours timeframe, the 50-day exponential moving average is likely to provide resistance at 1.1850. Thus, the currency pair suggests a strong bearish bias.
On the other hand, the leading technical indicator, stochastic RSI, is holding in a sell zone. It’s demonstrating a selling trend in the EUR/USD currency pair. Therefore, Forex trading market participants may look for a buy trade above 1.1799 with an initial target of $1.1856 and $1.1880 levels. Alternatively, sell trades can be taken below the $1.1785 level to target $ 1.1750. All the best!
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