Today is all about the growth numbers in Europe and the extent to which the Eurozone economy is pulling itself out of recession. The numbers seen already have underlined the divide, with German GDP rising a better than expected 0.8% in the first quarter. The French economy was flat on a quarterly basis. All well and good, but as we know it is the deflationary backdrop that is the issue for the ECB, together with the ever present divergence in growth between the core countries and the periphery. Expectations remain strong for some action next month from the ECB and whilst this is weighing on the currency to some degree, it’s not falling out of bed. Note that EURJPY has not yet sustained a whole day below the 140 level, so this is the one to watch today in terms of more significant moves.
Elsewhere in FX, the gain on the dollar seen over the past week have stabilised a little. The yen and the Aussie are where the fight-back against dollar strength has played out. The Aussie continues to hold firm on the basis of domestic fundamentals and concerns regarding China are being kept at bay in terms of negative impact on the Australian currency. As for the yen, the currency continues to be playing for time and defying expectations for a fresh bout of weakness. Inflation and production data in the US are the focus for today, with Fed Chair Yellen speaking this evening.
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