EUR/USD continues to point upwards on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.37 range in the European session. The euro received some help as ECB policymakers said non-conventional easing measures are possible. It’s another quiet day on the release front. In the Eurozone, the French trade deficit narrowed last month, dropping to its lowest level in more than three years. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings. The markets are expecting a slight improvement in the March reading.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD was listless in the Asian session, trading close to the 1.3740 line. The pair has edged higher in the European session.
Current range: 1.3740 to 1.38.
- Below: 1.3740, 1.37, 1.3650 and 1.3560, 1.3515 and 13450.
- Above: 1.38, 1.3830, 1.3895, 1.3940, and 1.40.
- 1.3740 is providing weak support.
- On the upside, 1.38 could face another recovery attempt.
- 6:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -25.7B.
- 6:45 French Trade Balance. Exp. -4.9B. Actual -3.4B.
- 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Exp. 92.3 points.
- 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Exp. 3.99M. See how to trade this event with EUR/USD.
- 11:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
- 11:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- ECB says all options on the table: While the ECB did not make policy changes last week, the accompanying statement and press conference by Draghi were dovish: QE and a negative rate are on the table. On Tuesday, ECB policymaker Yves Mersch said that ECB officials were working on a QE scheme in order to combat deflationary pressures, but there was no immediate need for such a program. Meanwhile, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that monetary policy alone will not solve the Eurozone’s economic problems, saying that political leaders must undertake fiscal and other reforms.
- NFP improves but misses estimate: Nonfarm Payrolls, one of the most important economic indicators, rose nicely last in March, climbing to 192 thousand, compared to 175 thousand a month earlier. However, the markets were looking for more, with the estimate standing at 199 thousand. The Unemployment Rate also missed the mark, as it edged up to 6.7%. The estimate stood at 6.6%. Although these numbers were not as strong as hoped, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue trimming QE when it meets at the end of April. These tapers mark a vote of confidence in the US economy by the Federal Reserve, and are dollar-positive.
- German numbers point upwards: German data continues to beat expectations, as the Eurozone’s largest economy continues to post respectable numbers. Industrial Production dropped to 0.4%, down from 0.8% a month earlier, but this edged above the estimate of 0.3%. Last week, German Retail Sales, Unemployment Change and Factory Orders all beat their estimates, as the Eurozone’s number one economy appears headed in the right direction.
- Yellen talks dovish: Last week, Fed chair Janet Yellen said the US economy is on the right track but still has a ways to go. Yellen said that inflation and employment levels needed to improve considerably, and the Federal Reserve would continue to provide monetary stimulus for some time. Currently, the Fed is purchasing $55 billion in assets each month under its QE scheme. There have been three tapers to QE so far, and Yellen plans to wind up the program in the fall, provided that the US economy does not run into any serious turbulence. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has stated that it has no plans to raise interest rates until sometime in 2015. The taper pace and the rate hike pace depend a lot on jobs data.