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Euro dollar  is sliding in range in the new week. The EU Summit resulted in general ideas for preventing a future debt crisis, but didn’t address the current one. The real response will be seen in Italian and Spanish bond auctions. Also S&P is awaited: it warned all euro-zone countries and said that the outcome will be decisive for the credit rating of the zone’s nations, including AAA rated giants. Will the pair fall out of range?

Here’s a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session: Quiet session under the 1.3380 line. The slide began in the European session.
  • Current range:  1.3280 – 1.3380EUR/USD Chart December 12 2011
  • Further levels in both directions: Below 1.3280, 1.3212, 1.3145. 1.30 and 1.2873.
  • Above:    1.3380, 1.3420,  1.3480, 1.3550, 1.3650, 1.3725 and 1.38.
  • 1.3380 is only minor resistance before 1.3420.
  • 1.3280 provides support before the super strong 1.3145.

Euro/Dollar sliding lower- click on the graph to enlarge.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00  German WPI. Exp. +0.2%. Actual +0.7%.
  • 7:00 US  Federal Budget Balance. Exp. -138 billion.

* All times are GMT.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Bond auctions will set score for EU Summit: The leaders of 26 out of 27 countries agreed on treaty changes enforcing stricter budget rules. This not only excludes Britain, but also has a long timetable. Regarding the permanent bailout mechanism, the ESM, its size hasn’t been enlarged. Similar to the ECB’s move (see below), the leaders failed to address current affairs. If the leaders are still playing a game, this is a dangerous one. Italian yields are rising to 6.50% once again. These are unsustainable levels, although this is the secondary market. The primary market will be tested this week, with bond auctions from Spain and Italy, both short term and long term.
  • Will S&P downgrade France and Germany?: In a move that shocked markets, credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s  warned all euro-zone countries, apart from Greece, that their rating is endangered. Some countries, such as Germany, got a warning about a one-notch downgrade, while  France, Italy, Spain and others received a two-notch warning. In what seemed like a political move, S&P said that the action will depend on the EU Summit results and that it will publish its decision “as soon as possible”. Markets remain tense, especially regarding.
  • Draghi drags markets down: In one of the busiest rate decisions seen for quite some time, the ECB lowered the interest rate to 1% as expected, eased collateral rules for banks and offered 3 years loans. But on the other hand, ECB president made it clear that the ECB would not scale up its bond buying. So, Italy and Spain continue struggling and the euro falls.
  • Greeks withdraw money: The pace of withdrawals from Greek banks intensified recently, as the chances of leaving the euro-zone rose. This Greek bank run could bring down the system.
  • More good data before FOMC: Weekly jobless claims returned to providing hope for the US, dropping to 381K. In recent weeks, most US figures have been positive. This is also reflected in the all-important job data. The US continues to gain jobs at a nice pace, with the unemployment rate falling to 8.6%. On the other hand, the services PMI dropped and also factory orders fell. This is somewhat disappointing, although US PMIs still reflect growth. The Federal Reserve will publish its rate decision tomorrow. The last meeting of the year isn’t expected to result in new decisions, especially as the FOMC is currently split between hawks and doves.