EUR/USD continues its climb after taking a break. The important GDP releases came out better than expected, and allow the common currency to tick higher after the big move higher seen yesterday. Deflation worries were put aside. Consumer confidence in the US is the main event to close the week with. Where will the pair end the week?
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD traded steadily around 1.3670 before getting a boost from GDP numbers,.
Current range: 1.3650 to 1.37
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3650, 1.3580, 1.3515, 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3295, 1.3175, 1.31 and 1.3050.
- Above: 1.37, 1.38, 13915 and 1.40.
- 1.3650 has switched to support as the euro moves higher. 1.3580 follows.
- The round number of 1.37 is the next line of resistance. 1.38 is stronger.
- 6:30 French GDP. Exp. +0.2%, actual +0.3%.
- 7:00 German GDP. Exp. +0.3%, actual +0.4%.
- 7:45 French Non-Farm Payrolls. Exp. -0.1%. Actual +0.1%.
- 9:00 Italian GDP. Exp. +0.1%. Actual +0.1%.
- 10:00 Euro-zone GDP. Exp. +0.2%.
- 10:00 Euro-zone trade balance. Exp. +14.5 billion.
- 13:30 US Import prices. Exp. -0.1%.
- 14:15 US Industrial Production. Exp. +0.2%.
- 14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Exp. 79.4%.
- 14:55. US UoM Consumer Sentiment. Exp. 80.6 points.
*All times are GMT
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- Euro-zone growth beats expectations: Figures from both core countries and especially from Germany beat analysts’ expectations. While the EZ recovery still looks fragile, the German strength seems to lead the euro-zone forward, and France isn’t pulling it back anymore. The fragility of the recovery looks weaker.
- ECB ready to act: An ECB member stated that the central bank is considering negative rates very seriously. These words weighed on the euro. In addition, the Bank’s monthly bulletin cut inflation forecasts from 1.5% to 1.1% in 2014. Draghi seemed confident that things will sort themselves out, but another fall in inflation could still trigger a move in March.
- Weak US data: Retail sales fell in both January and December, lowering growth forecasts for both quarters. Bad weather was easily blamed, but perhaps the effect of the weather not that temporary (another storm hits the US) and perhaps the weakness is not only weather related. Convincing US figures are still missing.
- Yellen says tapers to continue: Testifying before Congress on Tuesday, new Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t generate much excitement in the markets. She said that the Fed plans to continue trimming QE, provided that the employment picture continues to improve and inflation rises. She acknowledged that even though the unemployment rate has improved steadily, the recovery in the labor market is far from complete and the Fed plans to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels. QE seems to be on track despite the weakness in recent US data. The Fed took its time with the taper decision and a terrible disappointment is needed in order to derail the taper train. The upcoming NFP will be closely watched.