EUR/USD continues to look listless this week, showing little activity on Wednesday. Early in the European session, the pair is trading in the low-1.35 range. Eurozone releases were a mix on Wednesday. Service PMIs from Spain, Italy and the Eurozone were positive, as all three showed improvement in January. Eurozone Retail Sales was a big disappointment, posting a decline of 1.6%. In the US, there’s plenty of action, led by two key events – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- EUR/USD was quiet in the Asian session. The pair edged lower late in the session, dropping just below the 1.35 line. Early in the European session, the euro is back above the 1.35 line.
Current range: 1.3450 to 1.3515
- Below: 1.3450, 1.34, 1.3320, 1.3240, 1.3175 and 1.31.
- Above: 1.3515, 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.37 and 1.3800.
- On the upside, 1.3515 remains under strong pressure. 1.3580 is stronger.
- 1.3450 is important support. The round number of 1.34 follows.
- 8:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 55.3, Actual 54.9 points.
- 8:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 48.2, Actual 49.4 points.
- 9:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Exp. 51.9, Actual 51.6 points.
- 10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Exp. -0.7%, Actual -1.6%.
- 13:15 US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Exp. 191K.
- 14:00 US Final Services PMI. Exp. 56.6 points.
- 15:00 US ISM Non-Farm Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.6 points. See how to trade this event with USD/JPY.
- 15:00 US FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks.
- 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 2.2M.
- 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
*All times are GMT For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- Services PMIs point higher: Eurozone Services PMIs were positive in January. The Spanish and Eurozone numbers came in above the 50-point line, pointing to expansion. Italian Services PMI also improved, but remains in contraction mode. These numbers come on the heels of Manufacturing PMIs which also looked solid. However, Eurozone Retail Sales looked weak, dropping by 1.6%, well off the estimate of a 0.7% decline. This key consumer spending indicator has posted declines in three of the past four readings, pointing to weak consumer spending, which is a key component of economic growth.
- Spanish employment data falters: Spanish Unemployment Change jumped to 113 thousand, shocking the markets which had expected a decrease. The Spanish employment minister tried to put a positive spin on the data, noting that January typically jumps higher, and this figure was the lowest January increase since 2007. Recent Spanish data has looked strong, but clearly the staggering unemployment levels will continue to weigh on the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy.
- Will the ECB react to lower inflation?: Eurozone inflation indicators continue to point to low levels of inflation, with the headline figure at the lows of October: 0.7%. Core inflation is at 0.8%, well below the ECB target of 2.0% but still higher than the lowest level of 0.7% seen in December. Nevertheless, the euro is weaker on expectations for a move from the ECB. Will the central bank act now or hold the course? We’ll get an answer on Thursday, when the ECB sets its benchmark interest rate for February. ECB Preview: 5 scenarios – negative deposit rate now, or later?.
- Emerging markets hit by taper: The taper, as well as issues in local economies, is taking its toll on the emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, Turkey, South Africa and Indonesia. The efforts to strengthen the local currencies has had limited success, and some estimate that the outflow of money from these nations has only just begun. Flows out of these countries and into Europe could keep the euro bid. In the meantime, the situation seems to be contained, but this may not last for too long.
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