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EUR/USD  failed in its attempts to break higher and eventually dropped. The ECB decision is the main event in a busy week. What’s next for the world’s most popular currency pair?  Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Talks about Greece remain hopeful and also remain at the back-burner.  Euro-zone data wan’t so  convincing, with falling industrial output, but at least inflation is not negative according to the revised data. Also in the US, both retail sales  and inflation  missed expectations and left the elusive second rate hike in the distance. Nevertheless, after a few weeks of suffering, the US dollar  managed to advance against the majors and after EUR/USD failed to reach higher ground, it went south.

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EUR/USD daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD technical graph April 18 22 2016

  1. Bundesbank monthly report: Monday, 10:00. The German central bank publishes a monthly report about the state of the economy. Various institutions have downgraded German growth prospects. It will be interesting to see if  the  Bundesbank is worried about the lack of investment.
  2. Current Account:  Tuesday, 8:00. The euro area enjoys a positive current account thanks to German exports. A  surplus of 25.4 billion was recorded in January, and a similar figure is on the cards for February: 21.3 billion.
  3. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. This  275 strong survey of broke the winning streak of positive surprises with  a minor rise to 4.3 points in March. This is still in  positive territory, reflecting optimism. A score of 8.2 is on the cards now. Also note the all European number that stood on 10.6 points last time and is now predicted to rise to 13.9 points.
  4. German PPI: Wednesday, 6:00. Producer prices eventually feed into consumer prices. A drop of 0.5% in February will probably be followed by a similar one, albeit expectations stand at +0.2%.
  5. Rate decision: Thursday: decision at 11:45 and Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. The ECB delivered a huge stimulus package back in its March meeting: QE was enhanced to €80 billion per month, the  deposit rate was lowered to -0.40%, the main lending rate was slashed to a round 0% and new TLTROs were announced. Nevertheless, Draghi’s  statement about  no new further cuts backfired and after the euro fell, it bounced to even higher ground. Since then, the ECB has hinted  that it has not reached the lower bound. In this meeting, no policy change is expected, but Draghi’s words about inflation, growth and most importantly the future of interest rates will be closely watched.  The ECB would like a lower exchange rate for the euro, but it may be hard to achieve. New forecasts are released only  in June, so this meeting could serve as a teaser to the next one.
  6. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. This official measure from Eurostat fell short of expectations of late, dropping to -10 points. A bounce to -9 is predicted now. The proximity to the ECB event makes its somewhat less important than it usually is.
  7. Flash PMIs: Friday: 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-area. The final manufacturing PMI for France in March stood on 49.6 points, just under the 50 point threshold separating growth and contraction. A score of 49.9 is expected now. Also the services sector report slipped to 49.9 points and a rise to 50.2 is predicted. The preliminary figures for April may be similar. Germany saw a barely positive manufacturing PMI of 50.7 in March and a move to 51 is expected. Services stood on a much more upbeat 55.1 points. The euro-zone  manufacturing PMI stood on 51.6 points.  Services was at 53.1 points. They are expected to advance to 51.8 and 53.3 points respectively.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar  challenged the 1.1460 level (mentioned last week). but after these attempts failed, the pair went south.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.1712 was the high point in August 2015 and remains high in the sky. It is followed by the very round level of 1.15.

1.1460 was a key resistance line in 2015 and 1000 above the multi-year lows. 1.1365 separated ranges late in March 2016 and replaces the 1.1375 level.

1.13 worked as support back in October and is the high line at the moment. It is followed by the swing low of 1.1220 in September which is minor resistance now.

1.1140 cushioned the pair in October.  1.1070  served as a clear separator of ranges during February and also beforehand.

1.10 is a round number and  significant resistance. 1.0960, which worked in the past as resistance, provided a cushion for the pair in February. 1.0825 worked as support in early March 2015 and  should also be watched. This is now a triple bottom.

The post-Draghi low 1.0780 replaces 1.08 as support.  1.0710 is the  next support line on the  chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

I remain bearish on  EUR/USD

After failing to break higher, the pair turned down and the ECB could add fuel to the fire with stark warning about the inflation situation. A drop in oil prices following a failed OPEC-Non-OPEC meeting could also add to the negative mood on inflation and even to opening the door for more measures in June.

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