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EUR/USD  fell for the third consecutive week. Is this the beginning of a downtrend or just part of a necessary correction?  German Industrial Production, trade balance, French Industrial Production, ECB Monthly Bulletin and the G20 meetings are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB decided on another “no-change” in policy leaving the main lending rate at 0.25% despite multi-year low inflation but the tone was certainly different. Draghi put QE firmly on the agenda and mentioned the exchange rate several times. This rhetoric sent the euro down. The not so impressive US Non-Farm Payrolls was not enough to allow for a recovery.  Let’s start:

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EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD Technical analysis April 7 11 2014 forex trading currencies fundamental outlook and sentiment

  1. German Industrial Production: Monday, 11:00. German industrial output improved for a third consecutive month in January rising 0.8% thanks to a mild winter weather boosted construction activity. The reading was higher than the 0.1% rise registered in December and was better than the 0.7% increase predicted by analysts. Business confidence edged up to a 2 1/2 year high, unemployment improved at a two-decade. A further rise of 0.3% is anticipated.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Eurozone investor confidence reached a three-year high, climbing to 13.9 in March, compared to 13.3 in the previous month. A major improvement was noted in the current situation assessment. But expectations index edged down to 23.5 from 25.5 in February which may indicate slower economic activity in the coming months. Analysts expected a higher reading of 14.3 in March. Another rise to 13.7 is expected now.
  3. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. German seasonally adjusted surplus declined in January to €17.2 billion from €18.3 billion in December.  Year-on-year, exports rose by a seasonally adjusted 2.9% and imports by 1.5% in January. The foreign trade balance posted a surplus of €15.0 billion in January Foreign demand continued to rise in the first quarter hand in hand with industrial orders and output. The strong readings suggest a good start for Germany in 2014. German seasonally adjusted surplus is expected to rise to €18. billion this time.
  4. French Industrial Production: Thursday, 7:45. French  industrial production declined for the second month in January dropping 0.2% after a 0.6% plunge in December. The second fall was led by a drop in electricity and gas production. The weak figures suggest recovery is sluggish in the first quarter. However, French manufacturing has improved in March with a 51.9 reading in manufacturing PMI indicating expansion.
  5. ECB Monthly Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. The last ECB monthly bulletin released in March was similar to the previous report issued a month earlier, revealing the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when deciding to leave rates unchanged. Moderate recovery in the euro area economy is progressing in line with the Governing Council’s previous assessment. Inflation expectations for the euro area over the medium to long term continue are in correlation with the Governing Council’s aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2%.
  6. German Final CPI: Friday, 7:00. German CPI returned to positive territory in February rising 0.5% in line with market forecast. This reading was preceded by a 0.63% decline in January. On a yearly base, inflation slipped to 1.2% from 1.3%.  The comparably low inflation rate was again mainly due to a fall in prices for mineral oil products. Excluding those prices, inflation reached 1.7%. A rise of 0.3% is anticipated, confirming the initial read.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar began the week trading above the 1.3740 line (mentioned  last week). It then moved higher but couldn’t hold above 1.38 until the ECB came along. A low of 1.3674 was recorded before the pair closed just above 1.37.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

The all important round number of 1.40 is of high political importance. We have seen how  getting close to the line triggered a critical comment that sent it down. Below, 1.3940 served as resistance back in 2011.

The 2013 high of 1.3895 is the top line looming above and it is becoming more important. 1.3830, which was a long serving 2013 peak comes back into the focus after capping the pair in March 2014.

The round number of 1.38 is now a pivotal line in the range. It served as resistance in December.  1.3740, which provided some support at the end of 2013 is now key support to the downside. The round number of 1.37, is another support line after capping the pair in December.

1.3650  provided support in December and worked as resistance in September 2013, and is also a significant line. Also the February rally fell short of this line. Below,  1.3560  worked as good support twice during February 2014.

The January 2014 low of 1.3515 provides minor support on the way down. 1.3450 worked as resistance in August 2013 and as support in September and October. It is now a key line on the downside.

Downtrend channels

Downtrend support accompanies the pair since mid March and that is when the narrower downtrend resistance also begins. In the bigger picture, we have another downtrend resistance line beginning earlier, from the 1.3964 peak. Here is a closer look at the downtrends:

EURUSD Downtrend channels April 2014 technical forex chart for currency trading

I turn from bearish to neutral on EUR/USD

The general direction remains down after the ECB made it clear that it is ready to use unconventional tools and after the US recovery story was confirmed once again. However, after three weeks of downfalls, the pair could take some time for consolidation before the next move down. Details of a potential QE program or another significant rise in the ECB rhetoric are probably needed for another immediate move down.


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