EUR/USD was unable to take advantage of the greenback’s weakness and suffered trouble of its own. GDP numbers stand out and also the ECB meeting minutes should be watched. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
ECB President Mario Draghi maintained his dovish tone, seeing inflation as transitional. That, together with political worries and weak data from Germany, pushed the euro lower. In the US, the greenback attempted a recovery and it worked out mostly against the vulnerable euro.Updates:
EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- German WPI: Monday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index provides an early idea of price development, as measured at the wholesale level rather than the retail one. After a jump of 1.2%, a more moderate increase of 0.3% is expected now.
- German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. The biggest economy in the euro-zone experienced slower growth in Q3, growing by only 0.2%. An accelerated level of growth of 0.5% is expected for Q4, in line with other European countries that have already published their inflation figures.
- German CPI (final): Tuesday, 7:00. According to the initial data, Germany saw a drop of 0.6% in prices in January, slide below projections. This will probably be confirmed now.
- Italian GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. The third-largest economy enjoyed a neat 0.3% growth rate in Q3 2016 after suffering no growth in Q2. The data for Q4 is projected to be a repeat of the 0.3% growth rate.
- Flash GDP: Tuesday,10:00. According to the initial GDP read, the euro-zone economies enjoyed an uptick in growth: 0.5% in Q4 2016. The second read is projected to confirm the initial data, but a lot depends on Germany.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Slightly overshadowed by the GDP figures, Germany’s ZEW institution will give an update on business confidence for February. A score of 16.6 was seen in January, a rise, but below expectations. A small slide to 15.1 is on the cards. The all-European number stood at 23.2 points and 22.3 is predicted now.
- Industrial Production: Tuesday, 10:00. The 19-country currency bloc experienced a robust increase of 1.5% in industrial output back in November. The data for December will probably be negative due to Germany’s poor performance: -1.4% is predicted.
- Trade Balance: Wednesday, 10:00. German exports tip the euro-zone to a surplus every month and December is likely to be no different, despite a narrower surplus from the euro-area’s largest country. A positive balance of 22.7 billion was seen in November and a very similar 22.5 billion surprlus is forecast now.
- ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. Four weeks after the European Central Bank stuck to its dovish tone, the minutes from the meeting are released. It will be interesting to see whether some members were opposed to dismissing the recent rise in inflation as only energy-based or if some of the German members wanted to express a more upbeat tone.
- Current Account: Friday, 9:00. Similar to the trade balance report, this wider measure of trade, including services as well, is traditionally positive. A surplus of 36.1 billion was seen in November.
* All times are GMT
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Euro/dollar dropped to lower ground and was then capped by the 1.0710 level (mentioned last week).
Technical lines from top to bottom:
1.10 is the ultimate high level in current trading ranges. It is followed by 1.0950. More importantly, the swing high of 1.0870 is fierce resistance.
1.0775 is the high line seen in late January. 1.0710 is the upper resistance line on the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.
1.0650 was the bottom end of the range seen in late January. The early high of January, at 1.0615 is the next line.
1.0570 was a stepping stone on the way down. Further below, the early 2016 low of 1.0520 and the 2015 low of 1.0460 are seen.
1.0460 seems to carry more weight. Even lower, there are two significant barriers on the way to parity. The 1.0340 level was the low of 2003 before the pair advanced to higher ground.
The 101.50 level was a peak seen in 2002, on the first attempt of the pair to break above parity. And then, there is EUR/USD parity.
I remain bullish on EUR/USD
The pair made a correction on European worries. However, improving data from the euro-zone expected this week, as well as a Fed and Trump, inspired weak dollar will likely lift the pair back up.
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