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EUR/USD  had a tense week around the Greek crisis and the dovish message from the Fed. Can the rally continue?  Flash PMIs and another German survey stand out. Here is an outlook for  the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Greek crisis got closer to the edge in a week that saw heightened rhetoric across the old continent. Germany’s ZEW indicator disappointed once again and Draghi left the stage to Greece and to his colleagues across the pond. In the US, economic data  was mixed but the focus was  naturally on the Fed, that was clearly dovish. With a lower dot plot, a slower pace of projected rate hike and a lack of confidence that the recovery is sustainable, the dollar tumbled down and EUR/USD breached the double top. A deterioration in the Greek crisis, which is into an emergency phase,  sent the pair back down. Let’s start:

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”EURUSDUpdate”/]

EUR/USD daily chart  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EURUSD technical graph June 22 26 2015 euro dollar fundamental analysis forex sentiment

  1. Eurogroup and  Leaders’ Summit on Greece: Monday at 13:00 for the Eurogroup, and leaders meet later. Negotiations are going on around the clock and they will reach a climax on Monday, when the leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meet. Will we have a last minute deal? That’s what usually happens in Europe, but the stakes are high and confidence is low. The meeting could continue into the night.
  2. Consumer Confidence: Monday,  14:00. This official survey of 2300 consumers fell short of predictions  in April by slipping  to -6 points. The trend of rising confidence has reversed for now and consumers remain pessimistic, as the negative number reflects. The same score of -6 is expected.
  3. Flash PMIs: Tuesday: France at 7:00, Germany at 7:30 and  the whole euro-zone at 8:00. France, the continent’s second largest economy still had  manufacturing in contraction territory as of May, with 49.4 points.  For the services sector, the situation is better with a score above the 50 point growth / contraction barrier, at 52.8 points. The preliminary numbers for June are expected to stand at 50.1 and 52.5 respectively. Germany has seen manufacturing at 51.1 and services at 53 points and also here, manufacturing is predicted to advance to 51.5 points while services to tick down to 52.9 points.  The all-European manufacturing PMI is predicted to  slide from 52.2 to 52 points and services to slide from 53.8 to 53.7 points.
  4. ECB decision on Greek ELA: Wednesday. The European Central Bank is keeping Greek banks alive with the Emergency Liquidity Assistance. While Draghi would like to stay out of the political debate, he has the keys to a Grexit: without money flow from the ECB, Greece would  eventually need its own currency. The amount of ELA, which has been growing hand in hand with the Greek capital flight, is also telling about the level of anxiety among Greeks. This is routine meeting that happens every Wednesday, and has become more important now.
  5. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 think tank showed  stability in May, with business climate standing at 108.5 points. The 7000 strong survey is expected to tick down in the score for June, following the lead from the ZEW institute and stand at 108.2 points.
  6. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 13:00.  The wide business  survey  from Belgium usually provides a good snapshot on the whole continent.  An improvement was seen in May, with a rise to -4.9 points, still in negative  ground reflecting worsening conditions. A score of -5.2 is on the cards now.
  7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. This survey of 2000 consumers has been marching forward in recent months, reaching 10.2 points in May.  This time, a slide from 10.2 to 10.1 now.
  8. German Import  Prices: Friday, 6:00. The prices of imports eventually feed into the CPI. After a rise of 0.6% in April, a more moderate rise of 0.2% is on the cards for May.
  9. ECB monetary data: Friday, 8:00. The M3 Money Supply showed an acceleration in growth of money in circulation, all the way to 5.3% y/y. This shows that the ECB’s loose monetary policy is reaching the real economy. Also private loans have stopped contracting on a yearly basis, with 0% change in April. For the month of May, another improvement is on the cards.=, to 5.4% in money supply and +0.2% in private loans.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/dollar  started off the week with a slide but later stabilized in range, respecting the 1.1290 level (mentioned last week). It then moved higher, creating a double top at the 1.1375 level and eventually breaching it.

Live chart of EUR/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”EURUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start from higher ground this time: 1.17 was the launch value of the euro and is still high above. 1.1650 capped the pair after the SNBomb and is more significant.

The round level of 1.15 has a psychological impact and it also worked as support in the past. 1.1450 capped the pair during February’s  recovery attempts and also during May.

Below, the historic line of 1.1373 (from November 2003) still  has a role as resistance. 1.1290, which was a peak in April and support in February is significant resistance.

1.1190, just below the round number of 1.12, proved its strength as a double top in June 2015. It is followed by a low seen in  January  of 1.1113 which is nearly 0.90 on USD/EUR.

1.1050 was  a high point in March 2015 and now works as important support before the round level of  1.10. This is still a battle line.

The next line was minor support  back in  October 1999: 1.0910. It was resistance back then and was tested once again in March 2015.  This is followed by 1.0815 which worked in both directions.

The next line is  1.0760, which was the low point in both July and August 2003. 1.0715 joins the chart after temporarily capping the pair in April 2015.

1.0660 worked nicely as support in April 2015.  1.0615, which worked in both directions during March 2015 and is better at support.

Another minor line is 1.0550, for  a role as support in the same period of time.  The very round level of 1.05 served as support during 2003.  The lowest level in over 12 years is 1.0462 and this makes it critical support.

I am neutral on  EUR/USD

In Europe, the recovery doesn’t look good and the Greek crisis is taking its toll, but for now, the  driver for the dollar is diving due to the data dependent doves. The lack of confidence from Yellen can hurt the dollar for another week. Upon a catharsis on Greece we could see a short term rally.

In our latest podcast we digest the dollar dove dive, update on Greece and preview next week’s events.

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