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After erupting above the very stubborn resistance line, another busy week expects Euro/Dollar, with the economic summit being a real peak. Here’s an outlook for the European events,and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now on higher ground.

The massive yen intervention also pushed EUR/USD above the barrier. Jean-Claude Trichet made an important contribution to the Euro. Will we see the same action now? Anything can happen. Let’s start:

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD Chart March 21-25

  1. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Monday, 14:00. The president of the ECB will testify in front of the European parliament and will have another chance to state his “vigilance”. Trichet pushed the Euro higher at the end of the week with hawkish statements.
  2. Industrial New Orders: Wednesday, 10:00. The Euro-zone’s otal value of new purchase orders has seen two three strong months of growth, showing that the economies are growing. Following the 2.6% rise last month, a rise of 1.3% is predicted now.
  3. NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 14:00. This survey comes from a small country – Belgium. Nevertheless, its magnitude, 6000 respondents, makes it important for the Euro. In recent months it exceeded expectations and rose nicely. From 5.8 points, it’s now expected to tick down.
  4. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 15:00. This official European survey of 2300 consumers has been stable at negative numbers for a long time. It’s likely to edge down from -10 to -11, showing growing pessimism.
  5. Flash PMI: Thursday- begins in France at 8:00, continues in Germany at 8:30 and finishes for the whole continent at 9:00. All these purchasing managers’ indices, for both the services and manufacturing sectors, have been positive (above 50 points) for a long time. They are all expected to remain at similar levels to last months’ number. Of significance are the German manufacturing PMI which already reached a high score of 62.7 points and is expected to dip, and the all-European services PMI, which is at 56.8, and is somewhat lagging behind. The time around these publications is very choppy.
  6. GfK German Consumer Climate: Wednesday, 7:00. The 2000 German consumers surveyed by GfK have shown optimism in recent months, with the score rising to a round 6 points. A drop to 5.9 points is expected now.
  7. German Import Prices: Thursday, 7:00. Europe’s largest economy is definitely “importing” inflation, as global commodity prices rise. In the past few months, the result exceeded expectations. After showing a rise of 1.5% last month, a rise of 1% is due now.
  8. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 9:00. This is one of the most important surveys. Contrary to the pessimistic ZEW survey, the 7000 businesses surveyed by Ifo are usually positive, exceeding expectations. After rising to 111.2 points, a slide back down to 110.6 points is expected now.
  9. M3 Money Supply: Friday, 9:00. This small inflation gauge has shown a rise in the amount of money in circulation. After a relatively modest rise of 1.5% last month, a rise of 1.7% is predicted now.
  10. EU Summit: Thursday and Friday. On Friday, the European leaders will present a program to tackle the never-ending debt crisis. In the previous summit, there were many differences. While the leaders agreed to extend the fund to its full size and to allow bond buying for bailed out countries, it fell short for providing a solution for Portugal, which is running out of time. Will the Europeans make the extra mile necessary for solution? This is a key event for the Euro in the coming months. See the full analysis of the previous summit to understand why Portugal won’t be saved according to the current terms.

* All times are GMT

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Euro/Dollar began the week within the previous range of 1.3860 – 1.4030 (discussed last week). On Friday, it broke above 1.4030, and even managed to settle above 1.4160, to close at 1.4179.

Looking down, 1.4160 now turns into support. This was a peak back in October 2010. It’s followed by a much stronger line – 1.4030, that now turned into resistance. It was a peak in September, and recently worked as very stubborn resistance.

Below, 1.3950, was a minor support line in the past weeks and also worked as a pivotal line around November. It’s followed by 1.3860, which cushioned falls recently and was also a peak earlier in the year.

Lower, we find 1.3760, which provided support to the pair earlier this month and in the past as well. This is a strong line as well. Just below it, we find 1.37, a round number that also works as minor support.

1.3570 is the next line below, that prevented quite a few falls. The last line for now is 1.3440, which worked as support for the third time in the past year, and is the lowest level in two months.

Looking up, the first resistance line is at 1.4282 – this is the peak that EUR/USD touched just after QE2 was announced in November. It’s a tough line, and the highest in a year.

Higher above, we find rather veteran lines of resistance. 1.4450 worked as resistance back at the beginning of 2010 and is the next line. It’s followed by 1.4580 which was a peak at the same period and worked as support beforehand.

Higher above, the round number of 1.48 was a tough line of support at the end of 2009. Even higher, above the round number of 1.50, we find 1.5144, the highest level since the financial crisis began.

I am neutral on EUR/USD.

The market’s reaction to the upcoming rate hike in Europe cannot be denied. On the other hand, the debt crisis is likely to have a strong comeback as Portugal struggles to finance itself. High volatility is guaranteed.

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Further reading: