EUR/USD continues to trade at high levels, and touched the 1.34 line in early Monday trading before retracting. The euro has jumped more than 300 points since Thursday, following the ECB rate decision. Monday’s Eurozone data did not look strong, as both Eurozone and Italian Industrial Production were well below the market forecast. In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernard Bernanke will be speaking later on Monday.
EUR/USD Technical
- Asian session: Euro/dollar posted gains, breaking past the 1.34 line before consolidating at 1.3380. The pair is unchanged in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3360 to 1.34.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3360, 1.3290, 1.3240, 1.3170, 1.3130, 1.3110, 1,3030, 1.30, 1.2960, 1.2624 and 1.2590.
- Above: 1.34, 1.3480, 1.36, 1.3750 and 1.3838.
- 1.3360 is providing weak support, as the euro reached the 1.34 line but has retracted. 1.3290 is stronger.
- On the upside, 1.34 saw action earlier on Monday, but remains in place. 1.3480 is the next line of resistance.
Euro/dollar continues at to trade at high levels – click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 1:20 US FOMC Member Charles Evan Speaks at financial forum in Hong Kong.
- 7:00 German WPI. Exp. 0.5%. Actual 0.0%.
- 9:00 Italian Industrial Production. Exp. -0.1%. Actual -1.0%.
- 10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Exp. 0.2%. Actual -0.3%.
- 21:00 US Fed Chairman Bernard Bernanke Speaks at University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment
- Euro trading at multi-months high: The euro has taken off since the ECB rate decision on Thursday, and has gained over three three cents in that very short time. The euro briefly broke through the 1.34 line, its highest level since last February, before retracting to the mid-1.33 line. EUR/USD has already had a busy Monday, and we can expect both the excitement and volatility to continue.
- Markets give thumbs up after ECB rate decision: At its policy meeting on Thursday, the ECB maintained it benchmark interest rate at its current level of 0.75%. Although this move (or non-move) was widely expected, market sentiment rose after the announcement, for two reasons. First, the decision to stay the course was unanimous, and ECB President expressed his confidence in the Eurozone economy. Although growth in the zone is weak and unemployment is persistently high, the ECB decided not to change its interest rate policy in order to bolster the Eurozone. Second, there was no indication from the ECB that it might resort to slashing rates in the near future. In doing so, the ECB is sending a strong message to the markets that for the near future at least, it is likely to make do with unconventional monetary steps as it tries to help along the Eurozone economy.
- Eurozone numbers continue to disappoint: The euro may be flying sky-high, but this is no reflection of recent Eurozone data. Unemployment continues to be major headache, with the Italian unemployment rate down a notch to 11.1%, and the Eurozone rate stuck at 11.8%. Manufacturing, PMIs and consumer data have also looked sluggish. Germany, the locomotive of Europe, continues to sputter, with three poor releases last week. For any recovery to get on track, these kinds of numbers will have to improve. Otherwise, market sentiment will tumble, and likely take the euro with it.
- German data weak: Early on in 2013, the once mighty German economy is showing signs of weakness. Recent economic data points to serious trouble in the Eurozone’s largest economy. The Trade Surplus dropped to its lowest levels since May, and German Factory Orders fell by 1.2%. There was no relief from German Industrial Production. Although the indicator managed to push into positive territory for the first time since September, the gain was a paltry 0.2%, well below the estimate of 1.1%. For the third straight month, German WPI fell well below the market forecast. Chancellor Angela Merkel is seeking a third term in national elections in September, but a weak economy could spell political trouble for the government as it seeks a new mandate to govern.
- US Trade Deficit Way Up: The US Trade Deficit ballooned last month, posting a deficit of $48.7 billion, way above the estimate of $41.1 billion. The sharp demand for imports signals that US consumers are spending, and points to improved global growth. The euro responded by racking up more gains against the US dollar. At the same time, unemployment figures have not looked good, and the staggering debt load will have to be dealt with by a divided Congress. We’ll have to wait for further releases to get a better reading of the extent of the US recovery.
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