EUR/USD is showing little movement on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the low-1.36 range in the North American session. There are no major releases on today’s schedule. In the Eurozone, German Trade Balance posted a wider surplus, as the indicator hit an eight-month low. Over in the US, JOLTS Job Openings improved nicely and easily beat the estimate.
Here is a quick update on what’s moving the pair.
- EUR/USD was fairly quiet in the Asian and European sessions, staying close to the 1.36 line. The pair has edged higher in North American trade.
- Current range: 1.3610 to 1.3650.
Further levels in both directions: 
- Below: 1.3610, 1.3585, 1.3550, 1.35, 1.3450, and 1.34.
- Above: 1.3650, 1.3677, 1.37 and 1.3740.
- On the downside, 1.3610 is under strong pressure. 1.3585 follows.
- 1.3650 is weak resistance.1.3677 is next.
EUR/USD Fundamentals
- 6:00 German Trade Balance. Estimate 15.7B, actual 18.8B.
- 6:45 French Government Budget Balance. Actual -64.3B.
- 6:45 French Trade Balance. Estimate -4.1B, actual -4.9B.
- All Day -ECOFIN Meetings.
- 11:30 NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 97.3, actual 95.0 points.
- 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.53M, actual 4.64M.
- 17:45 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
- 19:00 US Consumer Credit. Estimate 21.3B.
*All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
EUR/USD Sentiment
- German trade surplus widens: There was finally some positive news out of Germany, after a rash of weak data from the Eurozone’s largest economy. Trade Balance improved last month, posting a surplus of EUR 18 billion, the highest reading since last October. This easily surpassed the estimate of EUR 15.7 billion. German retail sales, employment and manufacturing data softened in May, causing concern that a weakening German economy could dash hopes of growth in the Eurozone and hurt the euro.
- US job numbers keep rolling: US employment numbers continue to improve. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.64 million, easily beating the estimate of 4.53 million. This follows excellent figures from Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate. Nonfarm Payrolls, one of the most important indicators, bounced back in June with a strong gain of 288 thousand new jobs. This crushed the estimate of 214 thousand. There was more good news from the Unemployment Rate, which continues to move downward. The indicator dipped to 6.1%, its lowest level since September 2008. The strong employment numbers are sure to increase speculation about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and remarks by Fed policymakers will be under the market microscope.
- Early US rate hike?: After the US gained 288K jobs in June including a drop in the unemployment rate from 6.3% to 6.1%, without a drop in the participation rate, Goldman Sachs brought forward their rate hike expectations from 2016 to Q3 2015. While this is still far, this is the first time they bring forward such expectations. We can expect the timing of a rate hike by the Fed to continue to be a hot topic in the markets.
- Dovish Draghi: The ECB did not alter monetary policy and this was expected. However, Mario Draghi did say that they are watching EUR/USD with “much attention” and that QE is certainly on the cards. Is the threat real? Other ECB members don’t see it coming in the near future. Yet in any case, a rate hike in the euro-zone isn’t on the cards until 2017 unless inflation and growth levels show unexpected improvement.
- US GDP looks like an outlier: The final US GDP release for Q1 was a disaster, as the economy contracted by a staggering 2.9% in Q1. However, the markets remained calm, and the US dollar escaped without much damage against most of its major rivals. More recent releases have been better, notably employment and housing data. With key indicators giving the economy a thumbs-up, the figure seems somewhat detached from reality.
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