EUR/USD has moved higher on Wednesday, as the pair trades above the 1.35 line in the European session. In economic news, Spanish and Eurozone Services PMIs beat their estimates but the Italian Services PMI lost ground and fell short of expectations. Eurozone Retail Sales declined 0.6%, its weakest reading in nine months. We’ll get a look at German Factory Orders later in the day. There are no major US releases on Wednesday.
Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.
- In the Asian session, EUR/USD gained ground and crossed above the 1.35 line. The pair consolidated at 1.3505. EUR/USD is unchanged in the European session.
- Current range: 1.3500 to 1.3570.
- Below: 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3415, 1.3325 and 1.3240, 1.3175, 1.31, 1.3050 and 1.3000.
- Above: 1.3570, 1.3650, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3870 and 1.3940.
- On the downside, 1.3500 remains under pressure. 1.3460 is next.
- 1.3570 is the next resistance line. It is followed by 1.3650.
- 8:15 Spanish Services PMI. Exp. 48.1, Actual 49.6 points.
- 8:45 Italian Services PMI. Exp. 51.6, Actual 50.5 points.
- 9:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Exp. 50.9, Actual 51.6 points.
- 10:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Exp. -0.3%. Actual -0.6%.
- 11:00 German Factory Orders. Exp. 0.6%.
- 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts.
- 15:00 US CB Leading Index. Exp. 0.7%.
- 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Exp. 1.7M.
* All times are GMT.
For more events and lines, see the Euro to dollar forecast.
- Eurozone inflation remains subdued: Inflation indicators in the Eurozone continue to point to very weak inflation, which in turn signals sluggish economic activity. Eurozone CPI dropped to 0.7% in October, its smallest gain in three years. Eurozone PPI posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.3%. Germany, the region’s largest economy, is also producing inflation numbers well below the ECB’s inflation target of 2.0%. Speculation is growing that the ECB could cut rates in order to boost growth, perhaps as early as this week, when the ECB holds a policy meeting.
- Will the ECB cut rates? The Eurozone continues to post weak inflation and low growth, and the markets are keeping a close eye on Thursday’s policy meeting. There is speculation that the ECB will reduce interest rates, something it hasn’t done since April. The argument against cutting interest rates is that with rates already at a record low of 0.50%, a cut of 0.25% might not have much impact. Other tools available to the ECB include a new LTRO or introducing a negative deposit rate. With all this uncertainty in the air, we could see some volatility from the euro.
- US Services PMI improves: The first key release out of the US this week looked sharp. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 points in October, up from 54.4 the month before. This beat the estimate of 54.0 points. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls later in the week, and if these numbers are strong, there is sure to be talk of QE tapering in December, as the Fed has said on numerous occasions that the employment market must improve before QE tapering can occur.
- QE tapering unlikely before 2014: Last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting was the first meeting since Congress hammered out an agreement on the debt ceiling and reopened the government. As expected, the Fed said that it would maintain QE at current levels of $85 billion each month. However, the policy statement was less dovish than expected, as the Fed said that the economy was expanding “at a moderate pace” and left the door open for tapering in December. However, most markets analysts are of the view that short of a sharp improvement in US data, QE tapering will be on hold until early 2014.