Greek hopes and worries dominated the Euro’s trading in the past week. The upcoming week will be dominated by economic indicators, with two major surveys to rock the currency. Here’s an outlook for the 12 events that await the Euro this week, and an updated analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
After starting the week with an impressing weekend gap on Greek hopes – the Euro returned closed almost at the same spot. The Greek story won’t let go, but there are so many events this week. So, let’s start:
- German PPI: Published on Tuesday at 6:00 GMT. After a leap two months ago, German producer prices took a break and remained unchanged last month. Given the rise in commodity prices, this inflation indicator is expected to rise by 0.5% this time.
- Current Account: Published on Tuesday at 8:00 GMT. After two months of surplus, Europe’s current account, consisting of good (trade balance), services and money, fell into a deficit of 8.1 billion last month. This deficit is predicted to narrow down to 5.3 billion this time.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This survey of 350 analysts and institutional investors always rocks the Euro. In the past 6 months, the ZEW economic sentiment has been on the fall, hurting the Euro almost each time. This time, it’s predicted to edge up from last month’s score of 44.5 to 45.2 points. Also the all-European figure is expected to rise from 37.9 to 38.9 points, but it has a smaller impact.
- Axel Weber talks: Starts speaking on Tuesday at 16:00 GMT at a conference in Mannheim. The president of the Bundesbank is not only an influential member of the ECB, but the leading candidate to replace Jean-Claude at the top position. His words about the debt crises and monetary policy in the continent are always monitored carefully.
- French Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 7:00 GMT. France begins a busy morning of purchasing managers’ indices, that will keep EUR/USD busy. Flash Manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise from 56.5 to 56.8 points. The services sector is somewhat lagging behind, in Europe’s second-largest economy, and it’s predicted to tick up from 52.8 to 54.4 points.
- German Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 7:30 GMT. Europe’s largest economy enjoys a super strong manufacturing sector, according to the PMI – the high score of 60.2 will probably be repeated. The services sector is expected to advance from 54.9 to 55.2 points.
- All-European Flash PMI: Published on Thursday at 8:00 GMT. The last figure is for all the continent – the manufacturing sector is expected to see a small rise from 56.6 to 56.8 points, while the services sector will probably rise from 54.1 to 54.5. Note that all the numbers are above the critical line of 50 – marking economic expansion.
- Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Thursday at 11:00 GMT in a conference in Frankfurt. The president of the ECB might comment about the situation of debt-struck countries and might also say something about the stagnant economy.
- French Consumer Spending: Published on Friday at 6:45 GMT. Europe’s second largest economy saw two months of disappointing dips in consumer spending – 2.7% and 1.2%. A halt in this quick deterioration is expected now with a rise of 0.3% in spending. This can help the Euro.
- German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. The second major survey from Germany is very wide: 7,000 businesses are polled about their expectations for the next months. Contrary to the ZEW survey, this has been on the rise almost each month, reaching 98.1 points, the highest in almost two years. This positive trend will likely continue with a score of 98.9 points.
- Industrial New Orders: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. After two positive months, the value of new orders that manufacturers received took a 1.6%. A correction is expected this time, with a rise of 0.9%.
- NBB Business Climate: Published on Friday at 13:00 GMT. This survey, coming from the small nation of Belgium, reflects the situation of the Euro-zone’s economies quite well – negative but improving. After edging up to -3.6 points last month, a score of -2.5 will probably be seen this time.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Euro had the best weekend gaps, starting above 1.36 and almost reaching 1.37. It later dropped and closed the gap on Friday. The close at 1.3504 is a full round trip.
Some lines have changed since last week’s outlook. The current range of this pair is between 1.3380 and 1.36. Note that 1.3380 is a strong support line while 1.36 is a minor one.
Looking up, the next line after 1.36 is 1.37, which was the peak last week and also a resistance line in the past. Higher, 1.3850 is a very strong resistance line – after the Euro failed breaking this line, it collapsed.
Looking down, the next support line under 1.3380 is found at 1.3267, the year to date low for EUR/USD. Even lower, strong support is found at 1.3080 – the line where the Euro began a long term run last year.
I am bearish on EUR/USD.
The Greek troubles aren’t over yet. Together with a new dollar storm on the Goldman Sachs scandal, and a lame economy, I EUR/USD renewing its falls.
This pair receives many good reviews on the web. Here are some of my favorites:
- James Chen watches how the gap is filled and sees this as a bearish sign.
- Mohammed Isah discusses how the pair is struggling ahead of 1.3537/1.3498 Levels.
- TheLFB analyzes the impact of Goldman Sachs on the oversold dollar.
- Andrei sees further weakness in EUR/USD.
- TheGeekKnows reviews the week and looks forward.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the British Pound, look into the GBP/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
- For the kiwi, here’s the NZD/USD forecast.
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