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The rate decision stand in the center of a week full with economic indicators. Here’s an outlook for the European events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

eur usd forecast

The Euro edged up in the past week, but did it with hesitation. It’s still too dependent on US weakness to rise. When more credit rating issues appeared in Spain, it took a breather. Will it make an impressive breakout this week, or will the rally end? Let’s start:

  1. Final Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 8:00 GMT. Purchasing managers in Europe’s manufacturing sector were more optimistic according to the initial release, sending the score from 55.6 to 56.5 points. This will probably be confirmed now.
  2. PPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. Friday’s CPI Flash Estimate saw inflation rising at an annual pace of 1.7% – advancing but falling short of expectations. Also producer prices are expected to be on the rise – from 0.3% to 0.4%. Only a more significant rise will cause inflationary fears.
  3. Final Services PMI: Published on Wednesday at 8:00 GMT. Also the purchasing managers in the services sector became more optimistic – with the score rising from 55.5 to 56. It will probably be confirmed as well.
  4. Retail Sales: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. Germany’s retail sales were a bitter disappointment on Friday – dropping by 0.9%. The figure for whole Euro-zone is expected to follow with a drop as well, but much more modest – 0.1%. A positive number will boost the Euro.
  5. German Factory Orders: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. After many strong months, factory order corrected with a drop last month, of 0.5%. And now, just before the rate decision, we’re expecting the positive trend to resume with a rise of 1.5%.
  6. Rate decision: Published on Thursday at 11:45 GMT. Jean-Claude Trichet is widely expected to leave the Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at 1%. While inflation is slightly rising, it’s still far from worrying levels (like in Britain). On the other hand, unemployment remains high in the Euro-zone, and the debt crisis is far from over. 45 minutes after the rate decision, Trichet will hold a press conference. Any comments will rock the Euro.
  7. German Industrial Production: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Complementing the factory orders number on the previous day, this figure is also expected to be positive – with a rise here of 1.1%, continuing a positive trend of the past 3 months.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week by rising from the 1.2880 line towards 1.30. After struggling with strong resistance around this level, EUR/USD climbed up to 1.3107, just under the 1.3114 resistance level, before dropping and closing at 1.3050.

Most lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. EUR/USD is currently bound between the psychological level of 1.30 and the fierce resistance line of 1.3114 – a line that supported the pair in May, before the big collapse, and afterwards capped an attempt of recovery.

If Euro/Dollar breaks above this level, the next hurdle is 1.3267, which was a support line twice (March and April). Above, 1.3435 was also a strong line of support in February and later worked as resistance in April.

Even higher, the notable lines of resistance are at 1.37, and this is followed by the area of 1.3850 – a level last seen 6 months ago.

Looking down below 1.30, the next line is 1.2880, which held the pair in 2009 and now works as a minor line of support. Below, 1.2720 worked as a resistance line at the beginning of July and later supported the pair – it’s a strong support line now. It’s followed by 1.2672, which capped the pair in May.

Lower, 1.2520 worked as a support line several times in the past, and it’s followed by a former resistance line at 1.2460, which provides further support. There are more lines below, with 1.2150 being the most significant one down the road.

It’s also interesting to look at the pair’s uptrend channel (also in the graph. EUR/USD is currently trading within this steep channel. A break to either direction will be a signal.

I am neutral on EUR/USD.

The Euro-zone still has issues of its own. The stress tests failed to provide confidence and the unemployment rate is still very high. On the other hand, the US isn’t doing too good either. 1.3114 is the key level.

Euro/Dollar receives excellent reviews on the web. Here are my picks:

  • James Chen sees the EUR/USD reaching the upside target, and also draws uptrend channels.
  • Andrei reports that the mixed reports cause volatility.
  • Mohammed Isah’s outlook is higher, with more upside risk.
  • TheGeekKnows provides a review of the past week and a look forward.

I’ll add more links later, as more articles are due.

Further reading:

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