EUR/USD Outlook – January 4-8 2010
EUR/USD Forecast

EUR/USD Outlook – January 4-8 2010

Looking for the latest outlook, for the current week? Check out the section: EUR/USD Forecast.

Happy new year EUR/USD traders! After two slow weeks, the action returns. The upcoming week is packed with economic indicators from a variety of fields. Here’s an outlook for the events that will move the Euro, and an updated and extended EUR/USD technical analysis for the first week of 2010.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD Forecast

There are many EUR/USD forecasts for 2010. Most of the ones I’ve collected see the dollar rise against the Euro. What do you think? Anyway, let’s start with the first week:

  1. Final Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT. The European manufacturing sector has shown improvement in recent months, with this indicator passing the 50 mark in October. Last month’s score of 51.2 points was followed by 51.6, which is expected to be confirmed now.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence:  Published on Monday at 9:30 GMT. This survey of 2800 investors has shown that investor confidence has risen nicely in the old continent, but is still in the negative zone. The trend is expected to continue with this index rising from -5.5 to -3.4 points this month.
  3. German Unemployment Change: Published on Tuesday at 8:55 GMT. The number of unemployed people dropped in the past 5 months, beating economists’ expectations for a rise in unemployment, month after month. Also this time, economists expect a rise of 4,000 people, but there might be a good surprise once again – something that will push the Euro higher.
  4. CPI Flash Estimate: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. Inflation began showing signs that it’s picking up, after a long time of deflation. Last month’s rise of 0.5% in consumer prices was the first sign, and it’s expected to be followed by a 0.9% rise this time. Note that this data is fresh, relating to December, but not always accurate.
  5. Final Services PMI: Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT. This figure complements Monday’s manufacturing number.  The services sector is doing better, and is above the 50 point mark indicating expansion for already 4 months. The nice number of 53.7 is expected to be confirmed now.
  6. Industrial New Orders: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Although being a late figure, relating to November, it’s quite moving for the Euro. After four strong months of growth, orders are predicted to dip by 0.9% this time.
  7. PPI: Published on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT. Contrary to consumer prices, European producer prices haven’t really picked up. Last month’s 0.2% rise is expected to be followed by a rise in the same scale this time.
  8. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. European retail sales haven’t risen in the past 6 months, disappointing again and again. After being unchanged last month, the same outcome is predicted this time. The predictions rely on German and French retail sales, so a big surprise isn’t expected here.
  9. Consumer Confidence: Published on Thursday at 10:00 GMT. 2,300 consumers are asked to rank the economic conditions. Eurostat showed that confidence has risen slowly, but is still in the negative zone, indicating consumer pessimism. Last month’s -17 is expected to be followed with -16 this time. Note that the ZEW economic sentiment survey was weak and this sent the Euro down.
  10. German Factory Orders: Published on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. Europe’s largest economy broke 7 months of expansion with a drop of 2.1% last month. This slowdown in orders hurt the Euro. Expansion is expected to return now, with a rise of 1.6%.
  11. German Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 7:00 GMT. German retail sales are  precede  the all-European number by almost a whole month. Last month, the volume of retail sales remained unchanged. A rise of 0.4% is predicted pushing the Euro higher.
  12. Unemployment Rate: Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Although the all-European unemployment rate is based on German and French numbers which are already out, this release is highly quoted by the media, and impacts policymakers. The rate ticked up by 0.1% each time in the past 4 months. Currently at 9.8%, it’s expected to rise again by 0.1% reaching 9.9%. If it rises to 10%, this will hurt the Euro, as this is a psychological barrier.
  13. Final GDP:Published on Friday at 10:00 GMT. Europe’s recession ended in Q3, with a rise of 0.4% in GDP. This rise is expected to be confirmed. Germany and France already showed growth in Q2.
  14. German Industrial Production:Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Similar to German factory orders, also industrial production dipped last month after a few positive months. The drop of 1.8% is expected to be followed by a rise of 1.1% this time, helping the Euro just before American Non-Farm Payrolls are due.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD traded in a narrow range during the past holiday week. It went as high as 1.4459, a little bit above the resistance line, but this can be easily attributed to the thin trading. The bottom was at 1.4272.

Support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. Immediate resistance appears at 1.4444. This was a firm resistance line during the summer and is strong now. After the Euro broke in September, it was supported at 1.4480, which serves as minor resistance.

Further above, 1.4626 worked as support in recent months, and is now a minor support line. Further above, 1.48 was the bottom border of a range that EUR/USD traded in. Even higher, 1.5144 was 2009’s high is a far and strong resistance line.

Looking down, 1.42 serves as immediate support. It was a stepping stone when the Euro rose in the summer, and was also tested about two weeks ago.

Further below, 1.40 is a round an psychological number and also worked as a resistance line in the past. The biggest support is at 1.3750. This worked as a major support and resistance line many times in the past.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Now that everybody is back on the scene, range trading trading could be replaced with a move downwards. The advantage that the Eurozone’s economy had over the American economy is gone. This is seen in the American recovery as well as in the problems that appeared in Greece and in Spain.

This pair always receive excellent technical analysis on the web. Here are a few:

  • The Geek Knows brings a review of the past holiday week, and looks towards 2010 with an interesting technical analysis of the Euro.
  • Casey Stubbs‘ last EUR/USD post showed that there is serious pressure against the dollar bulls. I’m waiting for his recent analysis…
  • Kathy Lien shows that EUR/USD has usually fallen in January.
  • Joel Kruger (on DailyFX) brings a classical EUR/USD technical analysis.

I’ll add more as they are published.

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.