It finally happened – EUR/USD broke out of range and closed the week significantly higher. This week’s German ZEW Economic Sentiment and 6 other figures will impact the Euro. Here’s an outlook for this week’s key events in Europe, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
EUR/USD forex graph.
Last week, the Euro moved mostly on the dollar’s weakness, in two waves, rather than on good data, such as the German Factory Orders. Let’s see what’s up this week:
- Industrial Production: The industrial production for the whole continent is published after France and Germany, but can still bring serious surprises. Last month’s figure disappointed by falling 0.6%, when a rise of 0.3% was expected. This month pessimism is back, and the number is expected to fall again, by 0.3%. Published on Monday at 9:00 GMT.
- French CPI: France releases the CPI after Germany, so only a big surprise can have an impact. After Germany posted a surprising rise in prices, France is also expected to do so, and show a rise of 0.4% in prices. Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT.
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment: 500 German industrial investors are surveyed in this very important survey. This survey showed great optimism last month and rose to 56.1 points, much higher than expected. It’s now expected to continue up to 59.8 points, and push EUR/USD higher. Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. At the same time, the all-European ZEW Economic Sentiment is also released. It’s expected to rise from 54.9 to 57.8 points. Since the ZEW is a German institute and Germany leads Europe in the recovery, the German number is more important.
- CPI: Consumer Price Index for the all of Europe is still expected to show deflation. Prices are expected to fall by 0.2% (annually adjusted). Also the Core CPI figure is predicted to be low, declining from 1.3% to 1.2%. Prices weigh on the Euro, since the interest rate isn’t expected to rise in the near future. Published on Wednesday at 9:00 GMT.
- Trade Balance: European Trade Balance is published after the main economies do that, but still has an impact. The surplus is expected to grow from 1 billion to 1.2 billion. France and Germany lean on exports. Published on Thursday at 9:00 GMT.
- German PPI: Inflation figures continue to draw attention. German Producer Price Index fell badly last time – by 1.5% last month. This time it’s expected to get back to normal levels of change, and rise by 0.1%, similar to the changes in previous months.
- Current Account: This figure is important mostly for seeing the cash flow into the continent. The deficit in the current account was triple the expectations last month, standing on 5.3 billion. This time it’s expected to squeeze back to 4.3 billion. Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT.
EUR/USD will naturally move by American figures as well with CPI and Retail Sales being the most important ones.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
After I’ve complained again about the range trading in last week’s EUR/USD Outlook, the big breakout on Tuesday sent the EUR/USD to new highs. Although the break was small at the beginning, a second wave sent the EUR/USD to a peak of 1.4634, almost 200 pips above the resistance line. It finally closed at 1.4569, still convincing.
I’ve left the uptrend channels in the chart, although they’ve also been broken. Looking at horizontal lines, 1.4444 now serves as support. After EUR/USD closed above this line, it shouldn’t test it soon.
Looking up, 1.4720 is the next resistance line. It was the swing peak in mid-December. The next major resistance line is 1.4908. It served as a peak in August 2008, as well as several times at the beginning of 2008.
Will the EUR/USD adopt a trading range of 1.4444-1.4720? Or will it continue to move?
Check out Casey Stubbs’s insightful technical analysis for EUR/USD.
- For a broad overview of this week’s events, read the Forex Weekly Outlook.
- For the British Pound, read the GBP/USD Outlook.
- For the Canadian dollar, check out the USD/CAD Outlook.
- Trading the Swissy? Here’s the USD/CHF Outlook.