After the dollar’s collapse last week, this week is full with American indicators. Rate decisions are due in Japan and in Switzerland. CPI and Retail Sales are published around the globe as well. Let’s go through the main events this week.
Monday, September 14th: For traders of the mighty kiwi, the week begins very early, on Sunday at 22:45 GMT with Retail Sales with are expected to rise.
Swiss PPI is published in the morning and is expected to remain stable. European Industrial Production is predicted to drop again, this time by 0.4%.
Near the end of the day, British RICS House Price Balance is expected to fall by 0.1% (delayed from last week).
Tuesday, September 15th: Australia starts the day with Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Housing Starts which are expected to turn positive.
British prices are expected to show a smaller rise. Following the CPI, Inflation Report Hearings will also shed some light on British inflation.
In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to continue rising, pushing EUR/USD higher.
American Retail Sales (and Core Retail Sales) are expected to turn positive. Also prices, as reflected in the PPI, carry high expectations.
Also note the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories and Ben Bernanke’s the all-important speech about the crisis.
Wednesday, September, 16th: Australia’s MI Leading Index starts the day down under.
Swiss Retail Sales are on the rise, and will probably do it again, this time by 1.1%. Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations will follow.
British Claimant Count Change is the first and foremost employment figure. It’s expected to remain stable. British Unemployment Rate is predicted to rise to 8%. Will GBP/USD stay behind on this as well?
European CPI isn’t expected to signal the end of deflation: it’s expected to fall again.
American CPI is expected to be different, and rise by 0.4% after falling last time. Core CPI is also expected to edge upwards.
TIC Long-Term Purchases, representing the cash flow in and out of the US, are expected to squeeze to 60 billion. Also in the US, Current Account, Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production which is expected to rise by 0.5%.
Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity is expected to continue rising, this time by 0.6%. Also not the Japanese BSI Manufacturing Index.
Thursday, September 17th: A new interest rate is due in Japan. No change is expected in the Overnight Call Rate, expected to remain at 0.1%. The focus will turn to the Monetary Policy Statement and the accompanying BOJ Press Conference.
British Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.5%, following last month’s rise. Also note CBI Industrial Order Expectations, which are still very low.
It’s Canada’s turn for the CPI release. Core CPI and CPI have been weak. Will it continue?
Switzerland’s quarterly rate decision is due. The Libor Rate is expected to stay at 0.25%. The SNB hasn’t hesitated to intervene in the markets. Will they do it again? We’ll know at the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment. USD/CHF is not far from parity.
In the US, Building Permits are expected to rise to 580K. Housing Starts are predicted to rise to 590K. American housing is off the bottom. Will it get better?
Unemployment Claims, which made a surprise last week, are expected to rise back to 562K. Also note the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is expected to rise to 8.1 points.
Friday, September 18th: German PPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, after posting a big drop last time. European Current Account is predicted to show a smaller deficit this time.
British Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to grow, showing that the government lends more money.
Canadian Wholesale Sales close the week.
These are the major events for this week. I’ll later post more detailed coverages on specific currencies.
Note: There will be no forex weekly outlook next week, since I’ll be on holiday.Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs