Forex Weekly Outlook – April 20-24 2009

This week features Home Sales data in the US, a rate decision in Canada, British GDP and many more interesting economic figures that will move the markets. Some currencies are at critical levels, and might set a new course this week. Let’s dive into the major events this week:

Monday, April 20th: Australia’s PPI is expected to rise by 0.6%, close to deflation levels. Later in the day, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases are published and also the American CB Leading Index will be interesting to watch.

Tuesday, April 21st: Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be interesting to watch, after the RBA took the middle way between unchanged rates and a big cut. This will be followed by a speech by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.

British CPI will be of interest, expected to show a rise of 2.9% (annually adjusted). Later, German ZEW Economic Sentiment will significantly move the suffering Euro.

The BOC is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, at 0.5%. The focus will move to the BOC Rate Statement.

Wednesday, April 22nd: Australia’s CPI is expected to follow the PPI, and remain low, at 0.5%. 

The Pound will continue to be in the limelight, as Claimant Count Change will be released, and is expected to stand at 117K. At the same time, MPC Meeting Minutes will tell us what British policymakers are thinking about the economy.

Thursday, April 23rd: French, German and European Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI are released in the morning, and will shake the Euro. Also note the European Current Account and Industrial New Orders.

All these European figures are expected to be better than last month, but the situation in Europe isn’t good. More about the Euro’s bad situation.

In Switzerland, an important speech by SNB Governing Board Vice-Chairman Philip Hildebrand will be closely watched by traders of the chocola.

Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales are expected to be almost unchanged. Also in Canada: BOC Monetary Policy Report is expected to give an overview of the Canadian economy. If this isn’t enough, a speech by BOC Governor Mark Carney will help understand what’s going on there.

In the US, Unemployment Claims are expected to rise back to 635K, after last week’s surprising drop to 610K. Traders still believe that this was a one time event, and that the employment situation in the US is still problematic.

Also in the US, Existing Home Sales are expected to slow, showing 4.66M. American housing is off the bottom, but the recovery is still slow.

Friday, April 24th: US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner hasn’t made headlines in few weeks, and this Friday is a good chance of doing so. 

In Europe, German Ifo Business Climate is a highly regarded indicator. It’s expected to marginally rise.

Big day in Britain, where Prelim GDP is expected to fall by 1.5%. At the same time, British Retail Sales are expected to fall by 0.3%. These two events are critical for the British Pound. More about the Pound this week.

Near the end of the week, two major economic figures are released in the US: Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders are expected to drop by over 1%. Later,  New Home Sales are expected to stay almost unchanged, at 340K.

These are the major events for this week. I’ll post a daily outlook every day, as usual.

Happy Forex Trading!

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