Forex Weekly Outlook – February 2-6 2009

1

The first week of February unfolds lots of interesting data: Rate decisions in Europe, Britain and Australia, as well as the king of Forex indicators: Non Farm Payrolls. Lets dive in to the major events this week. This time, it’s a more concise edition that last week’s…

Sunday, February 1st: Yes, there’s something worth mentioning on Sunday, in New Zealand. Quarterly Labor Cost Index is released as the the forex market opens in February. It’s expected to rise by 0.9%. A disappointment could lead to further fall of the NZD/USD, after breaking a technical support line.

Monday, February 2nd: Lots of data from Australia: quarterly HPI is the most important figure, expected to fall by 1.1%. In Britain, the monthly Halifax HPI isn’t predicted to show another drop in the UK’s real estate state. 

PMI data is due in Britain, Europe and the US, where ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rock the markets by hitting a new low of 32.4.

Tuesday, February 3rd: Early in the morning, the Australian Trade Balance will be released. But it’ll only play second fiddle to the major news from Australia: A new interest rate. The RBA is expected to slash the Cash Rate by 1% to 3.25%. It will be followed by the RBA Rate Statement.

Around Europe, the German Retail Sales, Swiss Trade Balance and British Construction PMI will be of interest. 

In America, the monthly Pending Home Sales will gather attention, after last week’s devastating New Home Sales figure.

Wednesday, February 4th: A big day for the southern hemisphere begins with Australia’s monthly Building Approvals, and Retail Sales Trend. Both are expected to be positive.

More PMI data is due in Europe and in Britain, where Services PMI will be in the limelight.

In the US, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is an early bird for the NFP on Friday. This is a rather shaky figure, that should be treated with a grain of salt. But the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (a follow up for Monday’s similar figure) will certainly be of value. It’s expected to dive deeper, to 39.

And the day that began down under ends in its neighbor, New Zealand:  Employment Change and Unemployment Rate are fore casted to be worse than the previous figures.

Thursday, February 5th: This is a big day: Both Europe and Britain will publish new interest rates. The Official Bank Rate in Britain is expected to be cut to 1%, another historic breakthrough. The ECB’s Minimum Bid Rate is expected to stay unchanged at 2%, mostly due to Jean Claude Trichet’s remarks on the same event last month. The accompanying statements from both central banks are also critical.

In Canada, the Building Permits are expected to continue falling, while the Ivey PMI is predicted to stay put, at 39.1.

Friday, February 6th: The monthly circus is due today, with the Non Farm Payrolls. Currently, the Non-Farm Employment Change is predicted to be similar to last month’s figure, a drop of 530,000. This will complete a terrible 3 months in which 1.5 million jobs were lost in the US. I’ll pay special attention to NFP during the week.

The Non Farm Payrolls will be accompanied by the Unemployment Rate, expected to jump again, to 7.5%.

More important figures on Friday: Australia’s RBA Monetary Policy Statement, monthly Manufacturing Production and PPI Input in Britain, and Employment Data from Canada.

I’ll post a daily forex analysis every day, in which more detail bout economic indicators will be published.

Happy Forex Week (and month)!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.