Forex Weekly Outlook – May 24-28

GDP releases from the US and Britain, housing figures from the US are among the major market movers expected this week. Will the markets stabilize? Or will the crazy trading continue? Here’s the weekly outlook.

The Greek crisis was not only far from over, but it turned into a global issue. The latest news is the German’s parliament’s approval of the latest bailout package. Fresh news from Europe will continue shaking the markets, as well as the indicators. Let’s start:

1. American Existing Home Sales: Published on Monday at 14:00 GMT. The housing sector is an important element in the economy. Existing home sales are the vast majority of sales, so this figure always has a strong impact on forex trading. Last month saw 5.35 million sales, significantly better than expected. Another improvement is predicted this time – 5.61 million. Note that this release comes on an empty calendar.
2. British GDP: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. According to the initial release, Britain’s economy grew by only 0.2% in Q1. This figure was a blow to the Pound. In this revised version (not final yet), an improvement to 0.3% is expected. This will rock the Pound.
3. American CB Consumer Confidence: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The Conference Board showed a great result last month – 57.9, the highest in 18 months. Another improvement is predicted in this major indicator – a survey of 5,000 people.
4. Ben Bernanke talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve flies to Japan amidst the big crisis in Europe. In a speech about central banks, Bernanke will be asked questions by the audience and might rock the markets.
5. American Durable Goods Orders: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure was confusing last month: orders saw a drop of 0.6%, while the core figure was totally different – a rise of 3.5%. These numbers will shake the markets again. A rise of 1.4% is predicted in orders, and 0.5% in core orders.
6. American New Home Sales: Published on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. Completing Monday’s release of existing home sales, this figure will probably continue the positive trend from last month, when new home sales leaped from 324K to 411K, rocking the markets. A rise to 420K is expected now.
7. American GDP: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This is the second release of GDP for the first quarter of 2010. Also here, more good news is expected – the annual growth rate is expected to be revised from 3.2% to 3.5%, getting closer to the outstanding growth rate in Q4.
8. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. This important weekly release disappointed last time with a jump to 471K. Jobless claims are expected to return to 446K this time. A similar leap in April was followed by a return to the 440Ks. Note that the this number failed to drop below 430K – which seems a very strong barrier. This must be broken for the unemployment rate to drop as well.
9. Japanese Tokyo Core CPI: Published on Thursday at 23:30 GMT. Japan’s biggest problem is the drop in prices – deflation. This indicator from the capital is the earliest and most important of all inflation numbers. After showing an annual drop of 2% in prices for quite some time, this figure is expected to show a smaller drop – 1.5%, the lowest in 11 months. This could boost the yen, that already enjoys risk aversive trading.
10. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT. The former “safe currency” enjoys a strong economy. This major composite index edged up in the past months, and is now predicted to rise from 1.99 to 2.04, showing the stability and strength of the economy. Will it help the currency?

That’s it for the major events this week. Have a great one!

Further reading:

• For the Euro, read the  EUR USD Forecast.
• For the British Pound, look into the  GBP/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar, read the  AUD/USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD, check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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