Search ForexCrunch

GBP/USD  reversed directions  last week,  posting  gains of 90  points. The pair closed the week at 1.4220. This week’s highlights are  two PMI reports and Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US, Janet Yellen  sent the  US dollar on its heels, seeing the glass half empty and  dampening hopes for a  rate hike. The NFP beat expectations but this didn’t bolster the greenback. In the UK, Manufacturing PMI was slightly below expectations.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD_ Daily Chart Apr4-8.

  1. Construction PMI: Monday, 8:30. The indicator slipped to 54.2 points in February, shy of the estimate of 55.5 points. The estimate for March stands at 54.3 points.
  2. Services  PMI: Monday, 8:30. The index slipped to 52.7 points in February, short of the forecast of 55.1 points. The markets are expecting an improvement in March, with an estimate of 53.9 points.
  3. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This indicator gauges inflation in BRC shops. The index continues to post declines, and came in at -2.0% in February.
  4. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Wednesday, 8:30. This indicator is released quarterly, magnifying the impact of each reading. Loan amounts of been dropping, and totaled GBP 8.8 billion in Q3. This was smaller than the estimate of GBP 10.5 billion. The indicator is expected to increase in Q4 to 9.2 billion pounds.
  5. Halifax HPI: Thursday, 7:30. This indicator provides a snapshot of the health of the housing sector. The indicator posted a sharp decline of 1.4% February, below expectations. The index is expected to reverse sharply, with an estimate of 1.1%.
  6. Manufacturing Production:  Friday, 8:30. After three straight declines, the indicator reversed directions and posted a gain of 0.7% in January. This easily beat the estimate of 0.2%. The markets are bracing for a decline in February, with an estimate of -0.1%.
  7. Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30. The UK’s trade balance widened to GBP 10.3 billion in January, matching the forecast. The estimate for the February report stands at GBP 10.1 billion.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.4127. The pair quickly dropped to 1.4119,  testing support at 1.4148  (discussed last week)  before reversing directions and climbing to a high of 1.4459. The pair retracted late in the week and closed at 1.4220.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

1.4562 is providing strong resistance.

1.4413 was a cap in January.

1.4297 is next.

1.4148 was tested in support last week. The line was a cushion in late January.

The  round number  of 1.40 was last breached in March 2009.

1.3901 is  providing support just  above the 1.39 level.

1.3809 has held firm since March 2009.  It is the final support line for now.

I am  neutral on GBP/USD.

A rate hike in April would have been great news for the greenback, but Janet Yellen poured cold water on that idea in comments last week. Still, the US economy is strong, the employment market is robust and if inflation levels improve, a June hike is definitely a possibility. In the UK, the economy is stable but weak inflation levels continues to be a serious concern for the BoE.

In our latest podcast we explain why the doves do NOT cry.

Follow us on Sticher or on iTunes

Further reading: