GBP/USD posted sharp losses last week, dropping some 340 points. The pair closed the week at 1.4122. This week’s highlights are Current Account and Manufacturing PMI. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The markets were treated to a flurry of hawkish comments from Fed officials last week, helping the dollar post huge gains against the pound. This leaves an April hike a real possibility and contrasts with the very dovish Fed policy statement. US Final GDP beat expectations with a gain of 1.4% in the four quarter. British Retail Sales posted a decline of 0.4%, but this was within expectations.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- FPC Statement: Monday, 10:00. This quarterly statement evaluates the stability of the UK financial system and potential risks to the system. A report which is optimistic about the financial system could lead to the pound moving higher.
- GfK Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 23:05. Consumer confidence slipped to zero in February, short of the estimate of 3 points. The downturn is expected to drop to -1 point in March.
- BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Thursday, 7:00. Carney will deliver remarks at a meeting in Tokyo. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
- Current Account: Thursday, 8:30. Current Account is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each reading. The current account deficit increased to GBP 17.5 billion Q3, but this was better than the estimate of GBP 21.3 billion. The deficit is expected to increase again in the Q4 report, with an estimate of GBP 21.8 billion.
- Final GDP: Thursday, 8:30. Second Estimate GDP posted a gain of 0.5% in Q4, matching the forecast. The estimate for Final GDP for Q4 stands at 0.5%.
- Net Lending to Individuals: Thursday, 8:30. Lending levels are closely linked to spending levels, so analysts keep a close eye on this event. The indicator rose to GBP 5.3 billion in January, within expectations. The markets are expecting a softer reading in February, with a forecast of GBP 5.1 billion.
- Nationwide HPI: Friday, 6:00. The index posted a gain of 0.3% in February, unchanged from the reading a month earlier. The markets are expecting an improvement in the March release, with an estimate of 0.5%.
- Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 8:30. The week wraps up with this key indicator. The PMI dipped to 50.8 points in February, short of the estimate of 52.3 points. The markets are expecting the indicator to rise to 51.3 points in March.
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.4461. The pair quickly touched a high of 1.4466 and then reversed directions, dropping to a low of 1.4056, as support held firm at 1.40 (discussed last week). GBP/USD pair closed the week at 1.4122.
Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom
With GBP posting sharp losses last week, we begin at lower levels:
1.4562 is providing strong resistance.
1.4413 was a cap in January.
1.4297 is next.
1.4148 was a cushion in late January.
The round number of 1.40 was last breached in March 2009.
1.3901 is providing support just above the 1.39 level.
1.3809 has held firm since March 2009.
1.3678 was a cushion back in June 2001. It is the final support line for now.
I am bearish on GBP/USD.
The pound was blindsided by a broadly-stronger US dollar. With the markets reassessing the possibility of a rate hike, Janet Yellen’s remarks this week will garner close attention. If she leaves the door open to an April or June hike, the pound’s slide could continue.
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Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.
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