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GBP/USD  reversed directions last week, as the pair dropped about 170 points. The pair closed the week at 1.5615. This week’s highlights  are the  Average Earnings Index  and Claimant Count Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the UK, the pound took a hit after the MPC voted 8:1 against a rate hike, surprising the markets which had expected a 7:2 vote. As well, PMI data  was weaker than expected. Over in the US, Nonfarm Payrolls were not as strong as expected, but the dollar was able to shrug off the lukewarm job numbers.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD__Forecast.Aug 10-14

 

  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor:  Monday, 23:01. This indicator measures the change in retail sales in BRC shops. The indicator posted a strong gain of 1.8% in June, compared to a flat 0.0% reading a month earlier.
  2. CB Leading Index:  Tuesday, 13:30. This minor index slipped in May, posting a decline of 0.4%. This marked the index’s first decline in 2015, and the markets will be looking for better news in the June report.
  3. Average Earnings Index:  Wednesday, 8:30. This key  indicator has been gaining strength in recent readings, and posted an excellent gain of 3.2% in May, within expectations. The estimate for June stands at 2.8%.
  4. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 8:30. Claimant Count Change is one of the most important economic indicators, and an unexpected reading can have a significant impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator surprised the markets in June, posting a gain in unemployed persons of 7.0 thousand. This was much worse than the forecast of -8.9 thousand. The markets are expecting a small gain in the July reading, with an estimate of 1.4 thousand. The unemployment rate edged higher in June, coming in at 5.6%. No change is expected in the July reading.
  5. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the UK housing sector. The indicator continues to improve, and registered a reading of 40% in June. The upswing is expected to continue in July, with a forecast of 42%.
  6. Construction Output: Friday, 8:30. This construction indicator has struggled, recording just one gain in the past five  readings. The May reading came in at -1.3%, well below the estimate of 0.7%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround for the June report, with an estimate of 2.4%.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5621 and  touched a high of 1.5651, as resistance held firm at 1.5682 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions,  slipping to a low of 1.5421.  The pair closed the week at 1.5452.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

We  begin with resistance at 1.6133, which was an important support level in the first half of 2014.

1.6006 is protecting the symbolic 1.60 level.

1.5909 has  held firm as resistance since November 2013.

1.5769 is the next resistance line.

1.5682  held firm this week.  It was an  important cap in December 2014 and January 2015.

1.5590 continues to be busy. The line  has switched to a resistance role  as the pair recorded sharp losses.

1.5485 is a   weak resistance line.

1.5341  is an immediate support line. It has  held firm since mid-June.

1.5269 was an important support level in March.

1.5163 is the next support line.

The final support line for now is 1.5026, protecting the symbolic 1.50 level.

I am  neutral on GBP/USD.

The BOE surprised with its vote on a rate hike, and any rate increase in the UK is about a year away. With the US likely looking at a rate increase before the end of the year, the monetary divergence will probably continue to  weigh on the pound.

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Further reading: