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GBP/USD  rebounded last week, posting gains of close to 100 points. The pair closed the week just shy of 1.5597. This week’s highlights  are CPI and Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK wages grew at a lower pace than expected, and that deal a blow to the pound. However, the US dollar had trouble of its own: while it initially enjoyed the Chinese devaluation, the move eventually hurt the greenback on thoughts that the Fed may delay its rate hike.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBPUSD__Forecast.Aug 10-14

  1. Rightmove HPI:  Sunday, 23:01. This housing price index provides a snapshot of the UK housing sector. The July index posted a weak gain of 0.1%, compared to a strong gain of 3.0% a month earlier.
  2. CPI:  Tuesday, 8:30. CPI is the primary gauge of consumer inflation, and an unexpected reading can have a substantial impact on the movement of GDP/USD. Inflation has been practically non-existent for most of 2015, and the June reading came in at 0.0%.
  3. PPI Input:  Tuesday, 8:30. This indicator measures the change in manufacturing inflation. The index has slumped, posting two straight declines. The June reading came in at -1.3%, weaker than the forecast of -0.7%. Another reading of -1.3% is expected in the July report.
  4. RPI:  Tuesday, 8:30. RPI is similar to CPI, but  includes housing costs which are excluded from CPI. The index has been very steady, and has posted two consecutive readings of 1.0%. Little change is expected in the July report.
  5. Retail Sales:  Thursday, 8:30. Retail Sales is one of the most important indicators and should be treated as a market-mover by traders. The indicator posted a 0.2% decline in June, well of the estimate of a o.4% gain. The markets are expecting better news in the July report, with an estimate of +0.2%.
  6. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Thursday, 10:00. This manufacturing indicator is in a downward swoon, and came in at -10 points in July. This marked the indicator’s worst showing since July 2013. The markets are expecting some progress in the August report, with an estimate of -5 points.
  7. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Friday, 8:30. The indicator continues to post deficits, although there was some good news as the June reading contracted to 8.6 billion pounds, down from 9.4 billion a month earlier. The markets are expecting surplus of 2.3 billion in July, which hasn’t occurred since January.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5486 and  quickly touched a  low of 1.5457, testing support at 1.5485 (discussed last week). The pair then reversed directions,  and climbed to a high of 1.5660.  The pair closed the week at 1.5597.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

We  start with resistance at 1.6133, which was an important support level in the first half of 2014.

1.6006 is protecting the symbolic 1.60 level.

1.5909 has  held firm as resistance since November 2013.

1.5769 is the next resistance line.

1.5682  faced pressure as the pair showed some  strength.  It was an  important cap in December 2014 and January 2015.

1.5590 continues to be busy and has switched to a  support  role  as a result of the pound’s strong gains. It is a weak line and could see further action early in the week.

1.5485 is the next support level.

1.5341  has  held firm in support since mid-June.

1.5269 was an important support level in March.

1.5163 is the next support line.

The final support line for now is 1.5026, protecting the symbolic 1.50 level.

I am  neutral on GBP/USD.

The pair has alternated between weekly gains and losses over the past 6 weeks, as GBP/USD continues to show some volatility. Monetary divergence favors the dollar, but some strong inflation or retail sales data out of the UK could give a boost to cable.

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