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  It was another poor outing for the pound, as GBP/USD  slid almost 350  points last week. The pair closed at 1.2938.  This week’s highlight is the Official Bank Rate. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound slid after BoE Governor Mark Carney hinted strongly that the BoE would lower interest rates in the summer. Over in the US, Federal Reserve minutes were cautious and a rate hike remains unlikely.  US employment numbers were strong at the end of the week.

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GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

GBP-USD_ Daily Chart July11-15..

  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:01. This consumer spending indicator posted a gain of 0.5% in May, following two straight declines. This indicator precedes the official Retail Sales release by about 10 days.
  2. FPC Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 8:30.  These minutes are from the Financial Policy Committee’s most recent meeting, which is held each quarter. Analysts will be combing looking for the FPC’s outlook on financial stability and economic conditions.
  3. Inflation Report Hearings: Tuesday, Tentative.  BoE Governor Carney will appear before Parliament’s Treasury Committee. With Carney hinting that the BOE will cut rates later this week, the markets will be looking for further clarity about the BoE’s monetary plans from Carney.
  4. BOE Quarterly Bulletin: Tuesday, 11:00. This report is a minor event. It includes commentary about BoE monetary operations as well as market research and analysis.
  5. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Wednesday. 8:30.  This quarterly report is closely watched by analysts, as credit levels are closely related to spending by consumers and businesses.
  6. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The indicator slipped to 19% in May, compared to 41% a month earlier. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of just 8% in the June report.
  7. MPC Official Bank Rate: Thursday, 11:00.  The BoE is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 0.25%. The BoE will also release the vote breakdown from the MPC rate decision in May, which decided to hold rates at 0.50%. The voting breakdown is expected to be unanimous (9-0).
  8. BOE Asset Purchase Facility: Thursday, 11:00.  QE is expected to remain unchanged at 375 billion pounds. The MPC voting breakdown from the May decision will also be published. The markets are expecting that the vote was unanimous (9-0).
  9. Construction Output: Friday, 8:30. The indicator was unexpectedly strong in April with a gain of 2.5%. This was well above the forecast of 1.5%. However, the markets are braced for a sharp downturn, with the estimate standing at -1.1%.
  10. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Friday, 12:00. Carney will be back in Canada to speak at an event in Toronto. The markets will be listening closely, with the BoE setting its benchmark rate one day earlier.
  11. CB Leading Index: Friday, 13:30.  The index has been steady, posting two straight readings of 0.0%. Will we see a gain in the upcoming release?

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.3282 and quickly touched a high of 1.3341, as resistance held at 1.3426 (discussed last week). The pair then dropped sharply, touching a low of 1.2778. GBP/USD then recovered and climbed to 1.2938.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

With the pound posting sharp losses, we begin at lower levels:

1.3426 held firm as the pound started the week with gains.

1.3276 is a strong resistance line.

1.3142 is next.

1.3064 was protecting the symbolic 1.30 line, but was easily breached as GDP/USD slumped last week.

1.2840 is providing support. Will the pound continue to drop and pressure this line?

1.2720 is next.

1.2612 is the final support line for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

With Brexit aftershocks continuing to rattle the UK and the markets expecting a rate cut from the BOE, the sinking pound could have another bad week.

Our latest podcast is titled 3 markets – 3 totally different Brexit reactions

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