GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 30-Dec. 4

GBP/USD  had a rough  week, as the pair lost about 160 points. This week’s key readings are the PMI reports. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

In the US,  economic indicators were mixed last week.  Jobless claims  dropped sharply,  but  housing and consumer data missed expectations. Still, the US economy is fairly strong, so a rate hike  in  December remains a likely possibility. In the UK, GDP posted a respectable gain of 0.5%, matching the forecast.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Net Lending to Individuals: Monday, 9:30.  Analysts keep a close eye on this indicator, as an increase in credit levels can translate into stronger consumer spending,  a key driver of economic growth. The indicator has increased for  five consecutive months, climbing to GBP 4.9 billion in September. This beat the estimate of GBP 4.4 billion. The markets are expecting a slight downturn in October, with an estimate of GBP 4.8 billion.
2. BOE Financial Stability Report: Tuesday, 7:00. This BOE  will  release its evaluations of the stability of the UK banking system  and the results of the 2015 bank stress tests. The BOE is expected to give the banking system a clean bill of health. Any negative findings in the report or stress tests could put downward pressure on the pound. BOE Governor Carney will host a follow-up press conference.
3. Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 9:30. The index jumped to 55.5 points in October, well above the estimate of 51.3 points. This marked the indicator’s best showing since June 2014. The markets are expecting the PMI to retract in November, with an estimate of 53.7 points.
4. Halifax HPI: Wednesday, Tentative.   The index provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the UK housing sector. The September report  rebounded with  a strong gain of 1.1%, above the estimate of 0.7%. Will the index repeat in  October  with another strong gain?
5. Construction PMI: Wednesday, 9:30.  Recent readings have  been close to  the 60-point level,  indicative  of strong expansion in the construction sector. The October  reading of 58.8  points  was very close to the forecast of 58.9  points.  Another strong release is expected in the November reading, with an estimate of 58.4 points.
6. Services PMI: Thursday, 9:30. The index improved in October, rising to 54.9 points, which was within expectations. More of the same is expected in the November reading, with an estimate of 55.1 points.

* All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5187 and touched a  high of 1.5190. The pair then reversed directions and dropped to 1.5028, as support  held firm  at 1.5026 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.5031.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

With the pound posting sharp losses last week, we begin at lower levels:

1.5485 was tested in the first week of November but has since strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels.

1.5341 is next.

1.5269 was a cap in November.

1.5163 remains busy and has switched to a resistance level.

1.5026 was under strong pressure last week as the pair dropped sharply. It is a weak line and could see further action this week.

1.4856 has remained intact since April.

1.4752 is the next support line.

1.4654 is the final support level for now.

I am bearish on GBP/USD.

With the Federal Reserve likely to raise rates at this month’s meeting, the greenback could pile up further gains against the pound, even if this week’s Nonfarm Payrolls is soft.  British PMIs  are expected to be solid, and if these key indicators meet expectations, the dollar’s gains could be limited.

In this week’s podcast we guide you through the upcoming storm:  ECB, NFP, OPEC and more

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.