GBP/USD Forecast Nov. 9-13

GBP/USD had a disastrous week, as the pair dropped 400 points. GBP/USD closed at 1.5042. This week’s key events are Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

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The US dollar  pummeled the pound last week,  following the  Non-Farm Payrolls report, which  more than beat expectations, with 271K jobs gained and a 2.5% y/y gain in wages. This  outstanding release  points to a  strong labor market, and  certainly keeps the December rate hike option wide open. In the UK, the  BOE lowered forecasts and extended the inflation target for 3 years, and  the pound  reacted with sharp  losses.  Solid PMIs and an  excellent Manufacturing Production report was not enough to stop the dollar juggernaut.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:



  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 00:01. This index measures the change in retail sales in BRC stores, and precedes the official retail sales release by one week. The indicator rebounded strongly in October, posting a strong gain of 2.6%.
  2. Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. This key event is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The index improved to 3.0% in August, which was within expectations. The upswing is expected to continue in September, with an estimate of 3.2%.
  3. Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. Claimant Count Change is one of the most important indicators, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator improved in September, posting a gain of 4.6 thousand and easily beating the estimate of -2.3 thousand. The markets are expecting a smaller gain in the October report, with a forecast of 1.6 thousand.
  4. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. Carney will speak about the inflation report in London. The markets will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy moves by the BOE.
  5. RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The index slipped to 44% in September, well short of the estimate of 54%. The estimate for the October reading stands at 46%.
  6. Construction Output: Friday, 9:30. This minor event helps gauge the strength of the construction industry. The indicator with only one gain in the past five months. The markets are hoping for better tidings in the September report, with an estimate of a 1.6% gain.
  7. CB Leading Index: Friday, 14:30. The index is based on seven economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The indicator posted a small gain of 0.2% in August, breaking a nasty streak of three straight declines.

* All times are GMT


GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5439 and quickly touched a high of 1.5497. It was all downhill from there, as the pair plunged during the week  and tested support at 1.5026 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.5042.

Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]

Technical lines from top to bottom

With the pound posting sharp losses, we begin at lower levels:

1.5485 is a strong resistance line.

1.5341 was easily breached and has switched to a resistance role.

1.5269 is the next  resistance line.

1.5163 is next. This line had provided support since early October until last week.

1.5026  is protecting the symbolic 1.50 level. This line is  under strong pressure and could break early in the week.

1.4856 has remained intact since April.

1.4752 is the next support level.

1.4564 is the final support level for now.

I am  bearish on GBP/USD.

Last week’s outstanding NFP raises the likelihood of a December rate hike, which would be the first such move by the Fed since 2007. A rate hike would likely send the dollar surging, and rival currencies will be under pressure as the market  speculation heats up  that the Fed will press the rate trigger in December.

In our latest podcast we explain how to trade the euro printing machine:

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Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.