GBP/USD had a disastrous week, as the pair dropped 400 points. GBP/USD closed at 1.5042. This week’s key events are Average Earnings Index and Claimant Count Change. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”GBPUSDUpdate”/]
The US dollar pummeled the pound last week, following the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which more than beat expectations, with 271K jobs gained and a 2.5% y/y gain in wages. This outstanding release points to a strong labor market, and certainly keeps the December rate hike option wide open. In the UK, the BOE lowered forecasts and extended the inflation target for 3 years, and the pound reacted with sharp losses. Solid PMIs and an excellent Manufacturing Production report was not enough to stop the dollar juggernaut.
GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Tuesday, 00:01. This index measures the change in retail sales in BRC stores, and precedes the official retail sales release by one week. The indicator rebounded strongly in October, posting a strong gain of 2.6%.
- Average Earnings Index: Wednesday, 9:30. This key event is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. The index improved to 3.0% in August, which was within expectations. The upswing is expected to continue in September, with an estimate of 3.2%.
- Claimant Count Change: Wednesday, 9:30. Claimant Count Change is one of the most important indicators, and an unexpected reading can have a sharp impact on the movement of GBP/USD. The indicator improved in September, posting a gain of 4.6 thousand and easily beating the estimate of -2.3 thousand. The markets are expecting a smaller gain in the October report, with a forecast of 1.6 thousand.
- BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Wednesday, 10:30. Carney will speak about the inflation report in London. The markets will be looking for clues as to future monetary policy moves by the BOE.
- RICS House Price Balance: Thursday, 00:01. This indicator provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. The index slipped to 44% in September, well short of the estimate of 54%. The estimate for the October reading stands at 46%.
- Construction Output: Friday, 9:30. This minor event helps gauge the strength of the construction industry. The indicator with only one gain in the past five months. The markets are hoping for better tidings in the September report, with an estimate of a 1.6% gain.
- CB Leading Index: Friday, 14:30. The index is based on seven economic indicators, but is considered a minor event since most of the data has already been released. The indicator posted a small gain of 0.2% in August, breaking a nasty streak of three straight declines.
* All times are GMT
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5439 and quickly touched a high of 1.5497. It was all downhill from there, as the pair plunged during the week and tested support at 1.5026 (discussed last week). The pair closed the week at 1.5042.
Live chart of GBP/USD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”GBPUSD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines from top to bottom
With the pound posting sharp losses, we begin at lower levels:
1.5485 is a strong resistance line.
1.5341 was easily breached and has switched to a resistance role.
1.5269 is the next resistance line.
1.5163 is next. This line had provided support since early October until last week.
1.5026 is protecting the symbolic 1.50 level. This line is under strong pressure and could break early in the week.
1.4856 has remained intact since April.
1.4752 is the next support level.
1.4564 is the final support level for now.
I am bearish on GBP/USD.
Last week’s outstanding NFP raises the likelihood of a December rate hike, which would be the first such move by the Fed since 2007. A rate hike would likely send the dollar surging, and rival currencies will be under pressure as the market speculation heats up that the Fed will press the rate trigger in December.
In our latest podcast we explain how to trade the euro printing machine:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the kiwi, see the NZD/USD forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the Canadian dollar (loonie), check out the USD to CAD forecast.