GBP/USD Outlook April 2-6

GBP/USD moved upwards this week, closing just shy of the 1.60 level, at 1.5996. The upcoming week is quite busy, with nine releases. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Updates: GBP/USD climbed above the 1.60 level, trading at 1.6040. U.K. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1, well above the market forecast, and hitting its highest level since May 2011. Housing Equity Withdrawal, released quarterly, disappointed, dropping to -8.5B. Construction PMI rose to 56.7, its best reading since July 2010. The Shop Price Index rose 1.5%. HPI jumped 2.2%, the highest increase since June 2009. Services PMI rose to 55.3, exceeding the market forecast of 53.5. GBP/USD is down sharply, trading at 1.5873. The trigger for the plunge was as the release of the March FOMC Meeting Minutes, which indicated that the Fed intends to refrain from further quantitative easing unless the rate of growth falters or inflation drops below the central bank’s 2% targeted rate. GBP/USD continues to sag, trading at 1.5829. Industrial Production rose 0.4%, matching the market forecast. As expected, Asset Purchase Facility came in at 325B. The cenrtal bank kept the Official Bank Rate unchanged, at 0.50%.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Halifax HPI: Publication time tentative. This housing inflation indicator was down sharply in March, falling to -0.5%. The forecast for April is also weak, at -0.3%.
Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. This diffusion index is base on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The indicator recorded a reading of 51.2 in March, and little change is forecast for this month.
Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. This diffusion index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the construction industry. The index jumped to 54.3 in March, an eleven-month high. The market forecast is for a similar reading in April.
BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This inflation index has been on a downward trend for the past five consecutive months. It posted a reading of 1.2% in March. Will the indicator continue to drop this month?
Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. This diffusion index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the service sector. The index was down slightly last month, at 53.8. The markets are not forecasting any substantial change in April.
Manufacturing Production: Thursday, 8:30. Manufacturing Production was a flat 0.1% in March, indicating very modest activity in the manufacturing sector. The market prediction for April calls for little change.
Asset Purchase Facility: Thursday, 11:00. This indicator measures the amount of funds that the central bank uses to purchase assets in the open market. The figures have been steady for the past two months at 325B, and no change is forecast for April.
Official Bank Rate: Thursday, 11:00. The central bank has held interest rates at 0.50%, and no change is expected in April.
NIESR GDP Estimate: Thursday, 14:00. This monthly GDP estimate recorded a modest increase of 0.1%. A higher reading in April would indicate economic growth and could help the pound.

*All times are GMT

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD opened the week at 1.5878. The pair dropped to a low of 1.5802. GBP then climbed as high as 1.6037, as the resistance line of 1.6065 (discussed last week) continued to hold firm. The pair ended the week just shy of the 1.60 line, at 1.5996.

Technical levels from top to bottom

We begin with the strong resistance level of 1.6470. Below, there is resistance at 1.6356. This is followed by the resistance line of 1.6265. Next, 1.6132 has provided strong resistance since November 2011. The next line of resistance is at 1.6065. Next, the psychologically important line of 1.60 was breached this week, and looks to fall if the pound continues to push upwards. This is followed by 1.5923, which is now providing weak support to the pair. Close by is the support level of 1.5892. Below, 1.5750, is providing major support. Next, 1.5639, has strengthened in a support role. This is followed by 1.5520, a strong support level since January. The final line for now is the round number of 1.54, which has provided support to the pair going back to September 2011.

I remain bullish on GBP/USD.

Despite lukewarm economic data coming out of the UK, the pound has showed great strength in 2012, gaining almost five cents against the greeenback. With the important level of 1.60 under attack, traders may join the fray and continue to support the pound at the expense of the dollar.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer. Kenny's Google Profile

View all posts by Kenny Fisher