After a bad week, pound traders will have a big bunch of events towards the holidays. Here’s an outlook for the British events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.
The pound not only retreated against the US dollar, but also fell to an all time low with the Swiss franc – GBP/CHF dipped under 1.50. Will the fall continue?
GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Mortgage Approvals: Monday, 9:30. The number of mortgage approvals is a good gauge of economic activity. In the past four months, the figure hasn’t changed whatsoever – it remained at 47K. Sometimes the initial releases, like this one, have been worse, but the revisions were to 47K. A similar figure is expected now.
- GfK Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 00:00. This survey of 2000 consumers ceased to improve in recent months, dropping from -19 to -21 last month. The negative number means pessimism.
- Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday, 9:30. The coalition government led by Cameron vowed to cut public expenses, but the results so far are quite partial. Las tmonth saw a drop from 14.4 to 9.8 billion. Another small drop is expected now.
- GDP: Wednesday, 9:30. The final release of GDP for the third quarter is likely to confirm the growth rate of 0.8% reported in the previous release. All in all, this quarter was better than expected, but the fourth quarter isn’t too good.
- MPC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 9:30. In previous rate decisions, we’ve already seen how the MPC is split three ways between the majority that wants no change, one member that votes for a hike to fight inflation (Sentance) and one promoting another allocation of funds for QE to aid the economy. It will be interesting to see if another member in the majority took sides. It could be Charles Bean, voting for more QE.
- Current Account: Wednesday, 9:30. Similar to Britain’s deficit in its trade balance, also the wider figure (including services and cash) has a minus sign before it. In Q2, a squeeze was reported in the current account, and it dropped to 7.4 billion. A rise is expected this time.
- BBA Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 9:30. The British Bankers’ Association represents two thirds of Britain’s mortgages. Contrary to the official figure, it has shown a decline in approvals, dropping to 30.8K last time. Another drop is due now.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
An attempt to rise higher was met with resistance at 1.5910, a new line that didn’t appear last week. GBP/USD fell afterwards and bounced only at 1.5470 before closing at 1.5530.
Looking down, 1.5470 capped the pair during the summer and served as support once again just now. Lower, 1.5350 was a support line during August and September and also earlier in the year. It is now a strong line of support.
Even lower, 1.5230 capped the pair in the beginning of the summer, and is now support. It’s followed by 1.5120, which already worked as support, and is a minor line now.
Even lower, 1.4950 was a stepping stone for the pound on the way up. It’s just under the round number of 1.50. Lower, 1.4770 was a strong line of support several times in the past year, and is the last line for now.
Looking up, 1.5650, which was a strong support line in recent months, serves as minor resistance at the moment. It’s followed by 1.5720, which worked in both directions.
Higher, 1.5910 capped an attempt to rise recently. 1.60, is a round number that also was a stubborn peak in August.
Even higher, 1.6107, the swing high, is the next line of resistance. Above, 1.6280 capped the pair at the beginning of November and also worked as support in the past. The last line for now is 1.6450, a line from the past
I remain bearish on the pound for another week.
The situation in Britain is deteriorating due to internal austerity measures and external pressure from European countries.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro/Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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