GBP/USD Outlook – June 20-24

The pound fell  against the dollar  for a third week in a row. The upcoming week will provide the all important meeting minutes among other events. Here is an outlook for the British events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British inflation remained high in May (in the headline CPI number), but this probably isn’t enough to trigger a rate hike. Well, the British economy isn’t too good: both jobless claims and retail sales were a bitter disappointment. We’ll now see what policymakers think.

GBP/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. Rightmove HPI: Sunday, 23:00. According to Rightmove, prices have been rising in the past 5 months. a rise of less than one 1% is expected now, lower than the previous months.
2. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Tuesday, 8:30. The current British government is doing all that it can to squeeze the deficit In recent months, it doesn’t seem to work, as the deficit has usually been bigger than expected. It’s now expected to be higher than last month’s 7.7 billion.
3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Tuesday, 10:00. This survey from the Confederation of British Industry has had one positive month, but has returned to a negative score – returned to normal. Yet again, a negative number is expected, worse than last month’s -2 points.
4. MPC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 8:30. For another month, the British Monetary Policy Committee has left the interest rate unchanged and hasn’t released a statement. In the past 4 months, the committee was split 6:3 in favor of no change. The same three members are expected to vote again for a rate hike, while the rest. including governor King, are expected to have voted against it. The protocols might hint on when a hike to curb the high inflation might be seen. The market expects a hike in November.
5. BBA Mortgage Approvals: Thursday, 8:30. The British Banker’ Association represents around two third of British mortgages. The approvals figure provides a snapshot of activity in the housing sector, and a look at the whole economy. After a few months above 30K, BBA disappointed with a drop under this number, to 29.4K. A small pickup is likely now.
6. CBI Realized Sales: Thursday, 10:00. According to the Confederation of British Industry, sales have been quite good in recent months. Volume has been higher than expected and scored 18 last month. A drop is likely now, especially as the Royal Wedding is over.

* All times are GMT.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound started the week on a high note, rising as high as 1.6440. From there it fell sharply. Although it managed to recover, the 1.62 (discussed last week), capped it.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:

1.67 remains strong resistance, despite temporary breaches in recent months. These were false breaks. 1.66 is even stronger, being very distinct – separating between low and high ranges a few weeks ago, and having a role in the past as well.

1.6530 capped recovery attempts in recent weeks, more than once.  1.6460 is a tough line of resistance, that capped the pair three times just now. It’s tough resistance that will cap strong recovery attempts.

The veteran 1.6280 to 1.63 isn’t too far off, proved to be a very strong line. It was a peak several times in recent months and worked better as support. Minor resistance is found at 1.62, that managed to work in both directions just now.

Further below, 1.6110 is another veteran line. It’s second test didn’t work (after a previous successful one), but it is still of importance. Just below, 1.6050 proved to be a good line of support, after working as such twice during June.

More significant support is at 1.5940, which was tested more than once.  The next levels below are 1.5820 which was a trough before the current wide range trading and 1.5750 will be the final line for now.

I remain bearish on GBP/USD.

We just received fresh and gloomy data of the British economy. After some rises around the Royal Wedding, the economy returned to downfalls. We’ll probably see now that the rate hike will remain far in the distance.

FX Tech Strategy sees the pound losing momentum.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar
• For the Swiss Franc, see the  USD/CHF forecast.