Gold Forecast: 1,868 Fails to Hold Before US Retail Sales Data
Daily Look

Gold Forecast: 1,868 Fails to Hold Before US Retail Sales Data

  • The price of gold could extend its growth after taking out the 1,868.62 resistance.
  • XAU/USD could come back to test and retest the broken upside obstacle before jumping higher.
  • Gold was somehow expected to approach and reach fresh new highs after escaping from the triangle pattern.

In our gold forecast the price of the XAU/USD pair climbed as much as 1,875.02 level today, registering a new high. The yellow metal is strongly bullish even if the Dollar Index reached a fresh new high of 95.62 level earlier. Still, in the short term, we cannot exclude a DXY temporary decline after its strong rally.

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XAU/USD was somehow expected to resume its growth after escaping from a continuation pattern. The price action showed strong buyers lately, so Gold could extend its upside journey despite minor and temporary declines. 

Though, you should be careful later today as the United States is to release its retail sales data which are seen as high-impact events. The Retail Sales indicator is expected to register a 1.3% growth in the last month versus a 0.7% growth in September. In addition, the Core Retail Sales could register a 1.0% growth in October versus 0.8% in the previous reporting period.

Most likely, the fundamentals could really shake the markets and could bring sharp movements in Gold as well. Industrial Production could report a 0.9% growth compared to 1.3% drop in the previous reporting period, while the Capacity Utilization Rate could be reported higher at 75.9% versus 75.2 %.  

Gold Forecast: Price Technical Analysis – Continuation Pattern

gold forecast 

XAU/USD has finally managed to jump above the 1,868.62 static resistance. After escaping from the minot triangle pattern, it was somehow expected to resume its growth.

Staying near this upside obstacle, it has signalled an imminent upside breakout. Also, after failing to come back to test and retest 1,841.57 or the 1,834.19 support levels, XAU/USD showed strong upside pressure. 

In the short term, we cannot exclude a temporary decline. The price of gold could come back to test and retest the 1,868.62 broken obstacle before resuming its upside movement. Making a new higher high signalled strong buyers. The next upside target is seen at the weekly R1 (1,884.96) level. 

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Olimpiu Tuns

Olimpiu Tuns

Olimpiu Tuns graduated with a Master in Business Administration and is a seasoned Market Analyst / Trader / Trainer with 10 years of experience in the financial markets having expertise in Forex, Commodities, Index, Cryptocurrencies, and Stocks. He worked as a Market Analyst for three major brokerage companies, as a prop trader, and as a contributor/content creator for news portals and educational platforms.