- Federal Reserve Powell weakens the dollar, pushing gold towards $1,833
- The quarterly Advance GDP fell to 6.5% against the expected 8.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.
- Forex trading market participants may sell below $1,833 to target the $1,823 level.
Gold prices closed at $1830.30 after placing a high of $1832.60 and a low of $1807.20. Gold jumped higher on Thursday and peaked since July 16 amid the continued weakness in the greenback. The precious metal gold has already tested my target level mentioned in the gold price forecast, July 29. On Friday, the gold price forecast remains a bit bearish below the 1,833 level, as bulls may start taking profit in overbought metal.
Federal Reserve Powell Weakens Dollar, Pushing gold towards $1,833
The U.S. Dollar Index measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies. It fell for the 4th consecutive session on Thursday and reached its one-month lowest level at 91.85. The weakness in the U.S. dollar came in after Powell suggested that hikes in interest rates are not likely anytime soon. According to Powell, the U.S. Job market had some ground to cover before it would start pulling back the support.
This support is provided to the economy for recovery from the effects of a pandemic. Powell also refused to talk about tapering of asset purchases worth $120 billion per month. He said it was not the right time to discuss such things. These dovish comments from Powell added strength to gold, pushing it higher towards daily gains that were best in three months.
The U.S. Economic Events Underpins Gold Prices
The daily macroeconomic data release from the U.S. came in worse than expected and supported the upward momentum in the precious metal gold. The quarterly Advance GDP fell to 6.5% against the expected 8.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Jobless Claims from last week soared to 400K against the projected 382K and pushed gold higher. At 17:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter rose to 6.0% against the forecasted 5.4% and supported the U.S. dollar and capped further gains in gold.
The Pending Home Sales for June declined to -1.9% against the forecasted 0.1%, adding further strength to the precious metal. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment in the market also supported the increased prices of the yellow metal.
Delta Variant’s Rapid Spread Boosts Safe-haven Demand
On Thursday, the World Health Organization said that the Delta variant has led to a surge in coronavirus outbreaks. It has triggered the fourth wave in the Middle East countries where the vaccination rates were low.
Delta variant, first detected in India, has reached 15 out of 22 countries of the Middle East region and spread from Morocco to Pakistan. The circulation of the delta variant was accelerating the surge in COVID-19 cases along with the number of deaths in the said region. The statement also mentioned that most of the new cases and the hospitalized patients were unvaccinated people.
The inoculated Americans were also losing patience. They blame the unvaccinated people for the rising number of coronavirus cases in the United States and the return of restrictions across the country. The government renewed the mask advisory as the new patients arrived at a higher pace in emergency rooms.
All these fears and warnings from global agencies added further to the risk-off market sentiment. It’s supporting the yellow metal due to its safe-haven status. The gold prices managed to place the biggest daily gain in 3-months on Thursday amid the risk-off market sentiment and the vulnerability of the U.S. dollar.
Gold XAU/USD Forecast – Technical Levels: Major Hurdle at $1,835
Support Resistance
1814.14 1839.54
1797.97 1848.77
1788.74 1864.94
Pivot Point: 1823.37
Gold Price Forecast – Daily Technical Analysis: Double Top Resistance
Gold price forecast remains bullish over the $1,823.37 support level. The technical side of the gold continues to trade precisely as per our previous Gold Price Forecast, July 29, 2021.
On Friday, the precious metal’s bullish bias continues to dominate the market. It has closed a bullish engulfing candle below $1,833 resistance, suggesting solid odds of a bullish breakout. On the upper side, the breakout of $1,833/35 can boost gold price towards the next resistance level of $1,844 and $1,863.
Gold’s immediate support holds at the $1,823 intraday pivot level. A bearish breakout of this mark can drive the bearish trend until $1,814.
The 50 periods EMA (Exponential Moving Average – Red Line) will be extending support at $1,814 levels, as we can on the 4-hour chart. Bearish crossover below 50 EMA will likely lead the gold price towards the next support level of $1,792.
The oscillator indicator Stochastic is holding at 83, demonstrating that bulls are exhausted, and they may start profit taking soon. Therefore, the Forex trading market participants may sell below $1,833 to target the $1,823 level. Conversely, additional buying can be seen upon breakout of $1,833 level today. All the best!
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