Loonie Stays Behind – Mid Week Overview

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The US dollar is suffering from losses across the board. Out of the three currencies that I’ve covered, only the Canadian dollar stayed behind. The Pound and the Aussie continued enjoyed the dollar’s fall. Here’s an overview of the week so far, and an outlook towards the data-rich Thursday and Friday.

British Pound

Original coverage:  Britain’s Got Talent

The British Pound enjoyed the dollar weakness as well as good PMI figures. GBP/USD now trades at 1.6539.

Manufacturing PMI, published on Monday, rose from 43.1 to 45.4. This exceeded expectations of a more modest rise to 44.1. Today’s (Wednesday) Services PMI also exceeded expectations, and climbed from 48.7 to 51.7. This not only exceeded expectations, but also passed the critical 50 mark. This means that the industry is expanding.

These good figures, and the general dollar weakness have sent cable nicely upwards. It went as high as 1.6662, very close to the resistance line at 1.6670. I’m happy to see that my technical analysis proved correct – the road north sure was open for the British Pound.

Tomorrow is a critical day for the Pound, with a new interest rate, and news on the Quantitative Easing program.

Australian Dollar

Original coverage: Will Australia go Down Under? Aussie Outlook

Australia didn’t go down under! The land down under remains the only country in the West that isn’t in recession.  In the first quarter, Australian GDP rose by 0.4%, contrary to early expectations for a fall of 0.1%. So, the economy contracted only in the first quarter.

Australian Building Approvals were also good – they rose by 5.1%, much better than the original expectations for a 2.1% rise. Also last month’s figures were revised upwards.  Retail Sales were somewhat disappointing, rising only by 0.3% and not by 0.5%. It’s still positive…

Australian Cash Rate stayed at 3%. The RBA hinted that this isn’t the bottom though, taking out some of the back wind behind the Aussie.

All in all, the Austrlian dollar pushed forward, reaching 0.8264 at the peak. AUD/USD now trades at 0.8215.

Canadian Dollar

Original coverage:  Loonie At Parity? Canadian Dollar Outlook

The loonie stayed behind. USD/CAD had a good start (for the Canadian dollar), going as low as 1.0790 at the beginning of the week. Monthly GDP in Canada fell by 0.3% as expected.

But the Canadian dollar’s strength was short-lived. The area of 1.08 proved to be a strong support line. It served as a strong resistance line in September 2008.

Without additional economic indicators in Canada, the loonie failed to breach this line, and bounced back. USD/CAD now trades at 1.0890.

But tomorrow is another day: Building Permits, new interest rate decision and Ivey PMI will all shake the loonie. Hold tight!

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About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: Loonie At Parity? Canadian Dollar Outlook | Forex Crunch

  2. Trend Forex on

    Just wait for friday. Everything can happen when the NFP is comming out!

  3. Yup, anything can happen on Friday with the NFP. Last time, big moves started before the publication. Regarding the USD/CAD, Canadian unemployment figures are published an hour and a half before NFP, so it'll be quite exciting…

  4. Pingback: Risk Aversion Turns the Market Over | Forex Crunch