NZD/USD Forecast Apr. 17-21

The  New Zealand dollar  hugged the 0.70 level once again. Will it choose a direction after Easter? Quarterly inflation figures stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The Business NZ Manufacturing Index advanced to 57.8 points, but the FPI slipped. All in all, data from New Zealand was quite stable. NZD/USD rose higher after US President Donald Trump talked down the dollar. However, the greenback recovered, also buoyed  by higher consumer confidence.

NZD/USD  daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. The past two milk auctions were positive, after two big falls. However, these increases were not very impressive: 1.6% and 1.7%. The Global Dairy Trade has  significant influence as milk is the nation’s key export.
2. CPI:  Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its inflation figures only once per quarter, making the impact on the currency much stronger than in other countries. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in Q4  2016 and could see an  acceleration in Q1 2017. A rise of 0.8% is projected.

* All times are GMT

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Once again, kiwi/dollar hugged the 0.70 level (mentioned last week).

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.7380 was the high recorded back in February and is our top line for now. Below, we find 0.7250, which capped the pair back  twice in mid-February and serves as a double top.

0.7160, which capped the pair back in November is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7125 had worked as a double bottom before it collapsed in early March.

0.7050 served as resistance during the month of March.  The very round number of 0.70 is a battle zone.

Further below, 0.6960 worked as support in November and then in January once again.  The round number of 0.69 is weak support, and it is followed by 0.6865.

I am bullish on NZD/USD

New Zealand data could remind us that the economy is looking good. The US dollar lost some of its momenta.

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