The New Zealand dollar hugged the 0.70 level once again. Will it choose a direction after Easter? Quarterly inflation figures stand out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The Business NZ Manufacturing Index advanced to 57.8 points, but the FPI slipped. All in all, data from New Zealand was quite stable. NZD/USD rose higher after US President Donald Trump talked down the dollar. However, the greenback recovered, also buoyed by higher consumer confidence.Updates:
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- Apr 20, 8:41: NZD/USD cannot break out of range despite CPI jump: Prices in New Zealand surged by 1% in Q1 2017, above 0.8% expected and a much slower 0.4% that was...
- Apr 18, 22:20: NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand CPI: The New Zealand CPI (Consumer Price Index), which is released every quarter, measures the change in the price of goods and...
NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. The past two milk auctions were positive, after two big falls. However, these increases were not very impressive: 1.6% and 1.7%. The Global Dairy Trade has significant influence as milk is the nation’s key export.
- CPI: Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its inflation figures only once per quarter, making the impact on the currency much stronger than in other countries. Consumer prices rose by 0.4% in Q4 2016 and could see an acceleration in Q1 2017. A rise of 0.8% is projected.
* All times are GMT
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Once again, kiwi/dollar hugged the 0.70 level (mentioned last week).
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
0.7380 was the high recorded back in February and is our top line for now. Below, we find 0.7250, which capped the pair back twice in mid-February and serves as a double top.
0.7160, which capped the pair back in November is a pivotal line within the range. 0.7125 had worked as a double bottom before it collapsed in early March.
0.7050 served as resistance during the month of March. The very round number of 0.70 is a battle zone.
Further below, 0.6960 worked as support in November and then in January once again. The round number of 0.69 is weak support, and it is followed by 0.6865.
I am bullish on NZD/USD
New Zealand data could remind us that the economy is looking good. The US dollar lost some of its momenta.
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