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The  New Zealand dollar   had a positive week, thanks to strong employment numbers. The kiwi calendar is not extremely busy, but there are events that will move NZD, as well as echoes from Friday’s NFP. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

Employment figures in New Zealand were excellent: employment change rose by 1.1%, more than expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 6%, even though New Zealand experienced a rise in the participation rate. This outstanding result helped the NZD against many of its peers. The disappointing job figures in the US kept the kiwi on strong ground, ready for the next move higher.

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NZD/USD  daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD Technical Forex Graph February 10 2014 forex chart for New Zealand dollar trading fundamental analysis and outlook

  1. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 21:30. This highly regarding indicator, which has the same scale as PMIs in other countries, has been sitting on high ground in recent months. The figure of 56.4 points for December reflects solid growth. A slightly lower figure could be seen for January.  
  2. FPI: Thursday, 21:45. The Food Price Index is of importance to the kiwi dollar as New Zealand exports mostly food products. After a small drop of 0.1%, a rise is likely now.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar started the trading week by hanging above support at the 0.8060 line (mentioned last week). Things changed later on, as the pair climbed nicely to reach a peak of 0.8250 on top of the employment numbers. After a dip, it went on higher, and eventually closed just at the line of 0.8290.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

The round number of 0.84 is another line of resistance after capping the pair in September and in November.  0.8335  capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. The pair fell short of this line in January 2014.

Below,  0.8290  capped the pair several times during December and now works as a key line to the upside.  0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. It is somewhat weaker now.

Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March. Lower, 0.8135 provided support for the pair in January 2014.

0.8060 provided support to the pair in January 2014 and is the level to watch. The round number of 0.80 doesn’t have a technical significance, but is certainly psychologically important.

Below 0.80, we find another round number: 0.79. This level was a pivotal line several times in the past. The last line for now is 0.7850, that worked as cushion back in September, before the big rally.

I am bullish on NZD/USD

The superb labor market conditions in New Zealand have probably cemented the rate hike in March. While the kiwi is sensitive to global moods, it is likely to stand out among the commodity currencies, and eventually against the US dollar as well, especially as the greenback now seems vulnerable.

Further reading: