The New Zealand dollar had a second straight week of strong gains, riding higher on optimism for the New Zealand economy. Can the rally continue or will we see consolidation now? Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
Businesses are the most optimistic in almost 20 years, with the ANZ figure rising above 70 points. The kiwi got a boost also thanks to a bigger than expected trade balance surplus: 306 million. Credit card spending and inflation expectations are also solid, and only building consents fell short of predictions. In the US,we have seen an improvement from some figures, such as the strong durable goods orders, but numbers are generally mediocre. US GDP growth was revised to the downside, as expected.
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NZD/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Overseas Trade Index: Sunday, 21:45. This quarterly figure, also known as Terms of Trade, is a good measure for the current trade conditions and the value of the currency, In the past 3 quarters, the figures exceeded expectations, reaching 7.5% in Q3. A lower value of 1.9% is likely now.
- ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 00:00. As New Zealand is an exporter of commodities, their prices certainly impact the economy and the value of the currency. After a rise of 1.2% in January, a similar outcome is expected for February.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar began the week with a struggle around the 0.8335 line (mentioned last week). It then dropped to support at 0.8280 before making a big move higher above 0.84.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We start from higher ground. The 2013 peak of 0.8676 is a strong line in the distance. It is followed by the stubborn May 2013 high of 0.8586 is another important line.
The October peak of 0.8544 is an important resistance line. 0.85 is around number and could trigger comments by policymakers.
0.8435 was the peak in September and was retested in January. It is a strong double top. 0.8392 served as resistance was a recurring peak between November and February.
0.8335 capped a move higher in December and also had a role in the past. The pair fell short of this line in January 2014. Below, 0.8280 supported the pair in February 2014 and also in the past.
0.82, worked as support several times: in September, October and also in December. It is somewhat weaker now. Close by, 0.8150 capped the pair in August and worked as support in March.
0.8060 provided support to the pair in January 2014 and is the level to watch. The round number of 0.80 doesn’t have a technical significance, but is certainly psychologically important.
I am bullish on NZD/USD
The strong business confidence joins the excellent job figures and leaves less room for a doubt that the RBNZ will hike the interest rate in March. Assuming some global stability, the kiwi could continue rising.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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