Search ForexCrunch

The  New Zealand dollar  traded lower in a week that saw a stronger USD. The dairy auction is the main event as we turn to a new month.  Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

The better than expected trade balance surplus and the hopes for a higher budget surplus  did little to help the kiwi against the might of the greenback. Even though data was not convincing enough, Yellen’s upbeat message certainly kept the USD bid.

[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”NZDUSDUpdate”/]

NZD/USD  daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

NZDUSD technical chart June 2016

  1. Building Consents: Monday, 22:45. This  indicator  provides a good view of the housing sector despite being quite volatile  figure. A big drop of 9.8% was seen last time.
  2. ANZ Business Confidence: Tuesday, 1:00. The 1500 strong survey showed an improvement in economic prospects back in April, with a rise to 6.2 points. A similar figure is predicted now.
  3. Overseas Trade Index: Tuesday, 22:45. New Zealand’s “terms of trade” have worsened in Q4 2015 with a drop of 2%. A bounce could be seen now.
  4. GDT Price Index: Wednesday, in the European afternoon. Milk is New Zealand’s main export and the bi-weekly  Global Dairy Trade  always rocks the kiwi. The past few auctions have been a see-saw, with a rise of 2.6% seen last time after a drop of 1.4% beforehand. Will prices drop now?
  5. ANZ Commodity Prices: Friday, 1:00. The wider commodity price measure used to have more impact before the GDP  release, but it still moves markets. A drop of 0.8% was reported last time.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar  dropped lower and  established itself between 0.6720 to 0.6840.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.7160 worked as  support when the kiwi was trading on much higher ground in 2014.  0.7050 was the high in  April 2015.

The round level of 0.70 is still important because of its roundness but it isn’t really strong.  The low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce.

The round 0.69 level has  switched positions to resistance. 0.6840 capped the pair during May 2016 and tops the range. 0.6720 is the low seen in May 2016 more than once providing the lower bound.

The  round level of 0.67 that works nicely as support.  Another line worth noting is 0.6640, which capped the pair in November.

The post crisis low of 0.6560 is still of importance.  Below, the round 0.65 level is of high importance now, serving as support.

I remain  bearish  on  NZD/USD

Things continue going in favor of the US dollar and the RBNZ certainly likes it. With indicators coming out of New Zealand lacking momentum, we could see another slide.

In our latest podcast we  talk stocks, oil and preview the big week.

Follow us on Sticher or on iTunes