The New Zealand dollar tried to recover but was hit by the RBNZ. Apart from the bi-weekly GDT auction, the all important GDP release stands out. Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
The central bank not only cut rates but hinted about more cuts to come. In addition, it maintained its worries about the currency’s strength despite the big falls seen of late. This doesn’t bode well for the kiwi. In the US, we had positive job numbers coming from JOLTs alongside worrying consumer sentiment.
[do action=”autoupdate” tag=”NZDUSDUpdate”/]NZD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- GDT Price Index: Tuesday, during the European afternoon. The Global Dairy Trade, aka the price of milk, has a critical role in moving the kiwi for quite some time. While changes in prices of dairy products are often large, the publication always rocks the kiwi. After 10 consecutive falls, prices have rebounded nicely in the past two auctions: 14.8% in mid August and 10.9% in early September. Will we see an ongoing recovery?
- Current Account: Wednesday, 22:45. New Zealand enjoyed a surplus of 0.66 billion in Q1, breaking a losing streak of 3 straight deficits. However, given the shaky trade balance numbers, a return to a deficit cannot be ruled out for Q2: -1.51 billion is on the cards.
- New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. After growing strongly in 2014, the growth rate in Q1 2015 was a disappointing 0.2% q/q, reflecting the beginning of the global slowdown. Q2 is not expected to be much better, but growth is expected to continue. In Australia we have already seen a slowdown and Canada is in recession, but New Zealand’s agricultural dependency is likely to spare its economy from outright recession. A growth rate of 0.6% is expected.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar began the week without any rebound and dug deeper into the lows. An attempt to recover met resistance around 0.6408 (mentioned last week) before a second wave of selling emerged.
Live chart of NZD/USD:
[do action=”tradingviews” pair=”NZDUSD” interval=”60″/]Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We begin from lower ground this week. Yhe low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce. The round 0.69 level is switched positions to resistance.
0.6860 was a low point as the pair dropped in June 2015. It is followed by the 0.68 level that worked as resistance when the pair was climbing a few years back.
Close by, the July high of 0.6770 serves as resistance. Quite close by, the high of 0.6740 seen in July is another cap.
It is followed by the round level of 0.67 that is a pivotal line in the range. The now previous July low of 0.6650 was a multi-year low and the break below it was not confirmed.
0.6620 is the new 2015 low and for now serves as minor support. The post crisis low of 0.6560 is still of high importance.
Below, the round 0.65 level is of high importance now. The last line is 0.64886, which was the low both in July and in August – a double bottom.
The new post crash low of 0.6408 works as important support within the recent range. Below, 0.6310 provides some support after doing so in early September.
0.6255 seems to be a line of stabilization as seen in September after the second blow down. 0.6210 is the flash crash low. It is followed by 0.6160 that can be noted as a post crisis attempt to recover.
I remain bearish on NZD/USD
In New Zealand, even if milk prices continue rising, we will likely see a less-than-impressive GDP read. In the US, even if the Fed decides to refrain from a hike, the direction of monetary policy is clear, and this is in the other direction to New Zealand.
In our latest podcast, we prepare you for the Fed decision from all directions
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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