NZD/USD Forecast – Sep. 7-11

The  New Zealand dollar  continued struggling in the face of the global sell off. And now, the ball is in the court of the RBNZ. Will we see another rate cut?  Here is an analysis of fundamentals and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.

New Zealand’s main export, milk, enjoyed another boost from the Global Dairy Trade: a rise of 10.9% followed the previous rise and was encouraging. However, business confidence continued dropping and the global  stock sell off continued hurting the kiwi.

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NZD/USD  daily graph  with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

1. Manufacturing Sales: Monday, 22:45. This quarterly indicator fell in the past 4 quarters, with a bigger slide of 2.8% in Q1 2015. While the indicator is lagging, it provides a wide picture of the economy. Another drop is on the cards now.
2. Rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the rates  in the past two meetings. At the current level of 3%, there is still more room for cuts to support the economy. But is it really necessary with the big fall in the value of the kiwi? Perhaps it has fallen enough and it is better to maintain the tools in the shed? Or perhaps the ongoing deterioration in commodity prices supports further cuts now.  Markets expect the RBNZ cut once again to 2.75%. The event is accompanied by a statement and a press conference by Governor Graeme Wheeler.
3. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 22:30. This PMI like indicator stood on 53.5 points in July, reflecting OK growth. A tick down is on the cards now.
4. FPI: Thursday, 22:45. The Food Price Index helps assess the  situation in New Zealand’s key exports, but it is somewhat overshadowed by the GDT auction. After a rise of 0.6% in July, we can expect a drop in August.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar started the week with a plunge and dipped below post crisis lows. The flash crash did not last too long but the pair certainly remained on the back foot, failing to reconquer the 0.65 level mentioned last week.

Live chart of NZD/USD:

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Technical lines, from top to bottom:

0.7075 provided some support in May and is a weak level now.  And of course, the very round level of 0.70 looms large and gave a fight before the pair continued south in June.

Further,  the low of 0.6940 allowed for a temporary bounce.  The round 0.69 level is  switched positions to resistance.

0.6860 was a low point as the pair dropped in June 2015. It is followed by the 0.68 level that worked as resistance when the pair was climbing a few years back.

Close by, the July high of 0.6770 serves as resistance. Quite close by, the high of 0.6740 seen in July is another cap.

It is followed by the round level of 0.67 that is a pivotal line in the range.  The now previous July  low of 0.6650 was a multi-year low and the break below it was not confirmed.

0.6620 is the new 2015 low and for now serves as minor support.  The post crisis low of 0.6560 is still of high importance.

Below, the round 0.65 level is of high importance now. The last line is  0.64886, which was the low both in July and in August – a double bottom.

The new  post crash low of 0.6408 works as important support within the recent range. 0.6210 is the  flash crash low.  It is followed by  0.6160 that can be  noted as a post crisis attempt to recover.

I remain  bearish  on  NZD/USD

Despite the  recovery of milk prices, the New Zealand economy is slowing down. Even if the RBNZ keeps rates on hold, it is likely to leave the door open for more cuts in the near future.

In our latest podcast, we discuss if the NFP is  enough for a Fed hike, drill down Draghi and more:

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Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro to Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.