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The  kiwi  made a sharp move higher and managed to climb to levels last seen at the beginning of September.  Employment and housing data are the major events this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the events in New  Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD

Last week inflation figures disappointed with 0.4% rise while 0.7% increase was predicted and New Zealand Business Confidence index dropped to 26.1 from35.4 in September. These lukewarm readings left no hope for and RBNZ rate hike. However the hopeful note of the EU summit could have a positive influence in NZ economy.

NZD/USD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:NZD/USD Chart October 31 November 4 2011

  1. Building Consents: Sunday, 21:45.New Zealand building consents continued to rise in September expanding 12.5% after increasing 14.3% in the previous month. This boost of building consents coincides with the flood of applications for temporary housing after Christchurch earthquake in February. Further increase is expected.
  2. Labor Cost Index: Monday, 21:45.New Zealand wage expenses index grew in the second quarter by 0.5% in line with predictions after a rise of 0.4% in the previous quarter.  Another rise of 0.9% is forecasted.
  3. ANZ Commodity Prices: Tuesday, 0:00.New Zealand commodity prices dropped in September by 1.3% for the fourth consecutive time after 1.4% decrease in the previous month. However the broad picture indicates that commodity prices remained relatively elevated which is good for the NZ economy.
  4. Employment data: Wednesday, 21:45.New Zealand’s unemployment rate was maintained at 6.5% in the second quarter in line with expectations. Meanwhile the number of positions remained flat in the second quarter maintained at 2.21 million. Full-time employment increase by 0.2% while part-time employed declined 0.1%. The number of new jobs is expected to grow by 0.6% this quarter while unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.4%.
  5. G20 Meetings: Thu-Fri. This is the sixth meeting of the G-20  policy makers gathering in Paris. This meeting will be dedicated almost exclusively to the euro zone debt crisis fearing default in Greece and the heightened risks toSpain’s growth outlook in light of its high unemployment rate and tighter financial conditions.  They will also discuss plans to enhance EFSF resources in case it will need to bailout larger economies like Italy or Spain.

* All times are GMT.

NZD/USD  Technical  Analysis

Kiwi/dollar began the week with a downfall below the round number of 0.80. It then made a sharp move higher and ranged between 0.8160 to 0.8240, two lines that didn’t appear last week.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

Many lines are still listed as volatility could erupt once again. 0.8573 was a peak reached in August and is the top line for now.

0.8505 is also a notable point which provided a temporary cushion for the pair when it traded higher. It is now weak resistance.  It is followed by 0.8410 – which was a stubborn line of resistance is already a stronger line.

0.8330 has a more important rose now after capping a surge higher. 0.8240 was the peak now and also worked as support back in June. 0.8160 was the bottom border of the range also support in July.

0.8090 worked as support in June and in July and is immediate resistance now, for a second week in a row.  Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and provided support back in May and in July. It was run through during the downfall and is weaker now.

0.7895 was minor support in May and returns to being minor. It was tackled also in September.  A more important line is 0.7825. It capped the pair three times, in January and in September, and provided support in April. This is an area of struggle.

0.7764 was important support in May and managed to slow down the fall. It is weaker now, after being run through.  0.7655 was significant resistance back in February and also in 2010 and is now support once again.

I am neutral on NZD/USD

The improvement in China is important for New Zealand, and so is the improvement in the US, although this may turn against the kiwi. A lot depends on the employment figures.

Further reading:

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