The New Zealand dollar managed to recover and enjoy the weakness of the greenback. NZ current account and GDP are the highlights of this week. Here’s an outlook for the events in New Zealand, and an updated technical analysis for NZD/USD.
Last week RBNZ decided to leave rate at 2.50% despite the domestic requirement for a rate hike. The reason for this is concern over weaker demand for exports from other countries due to the delicate financial situation around the world. Is a rate hike likely to occur in the next RBNZ meeting?
- Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Sunday, 22:00.New Zealand consumer confidence crossed the 100 point line for the first time in two years reaching 112 in the second quarter from 97.9 in the first quarter. This rise in confidence correlated with other surveys and retail sales data indicating expansion in the market following the drastic drops prompted by the February earthquake. Another rise is expected.
- Current Account: Tuesday, 22:45.New Zealand’s annual current account deficit narrowed more than predicted in the first quarter due to robust trade earnings reaching NZ$97 million from a revised NZ$3.63 billion deficit. The central bank forecasts a rise in current account gap mounting to 5.5% from GDP by March 2014 with increasing imports and foreign investments. Further decrease of deficit is predicted now.
- Credit Card Spending: Wednesday, 3:00. New Zealanders increased credit card spending in July amid gradual economic recovery. On a yearly base, spending increased by 7.3% from 4.6% in the previous indicating growing optimism in the market.
- GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. The economy ofNew Zealand expanded by 0.8% in the first quarter, better than the 0.5% increase in the previous quarter. The manufacturing sector led GDP growth. The same figure is likely to occur.
* All times are GMT.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
Kiwi/dollar began the week on a weak note, and dropped to 0.8120. A first move higher was limited, but the second one managed to challenge the 0.8330 line (discussed last week), before the pair closed at 0.8284, just above the 0.8270 line.
Technical lines from top to bottom.
0.8620 provided support for the pair when it was trading in a high range during July and is our top line this time. 0.8580, already played in both directions during July and capped an upwards move at the beginning of September.
0.8505 is also a notable point which provided a temporary cushion for the pair. It is now weak resistance. It is followed by 0.8410 – which was a stubborn line of resistance is already a stronger line.
0.8330 has a more important rose now after capping a surge higher. 0.8275 has worked as support in August and in September, and is also of higher importance of capping the pair for some time. It serves as immediate support.
0.8180 provided support in July and also in September, and is immediate support now. 0.8120 was a double bottom just now and also provided some support in June.A break below this line will be significant.
0.8080 was support back in June and is a minor line at the moment. Below, 0.7975 was a long running peak and proved to be relevant once again as the swing low of the big fall. A drop below this line will open the road to 0.7875, followed by 0.7825.
I am neutral on NZD/USD.
The bullish sentiment heard at the rate decision and also the prospects of monetary stimulus in the US (although not QE3) may help the kiwi. On the other hand, the crisis in Europe and the global slowdown weigh against it and balance the overall sentiment.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.